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NFL Award Predictions 2026: MVP and More, Graded | MissedTakes

NFL / Award Picks

NFL award picks

Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →

Takes logged: 698
Graded: 354
Average accuracy: 21.2
Pundits: 147

How these land

Every graded call of this kind, by score.

Takes in each band

279

75 scored 80+279 under 40

Settled or waiting

354 / 698

graded

344 still pending

The field's ballot

Permalink

Who punditry picked for each award, reconstructed from graded calls, with the actual winner marked. Some years the chalk cruises; some years the whole ballot goes down together.

MVP · 2025100 calls

Matthew Stafford ✓ won26 of 100
Drake Maye14 of 100
Baker Mayfield8 of 100
Lamar Jackson7 of 100

Who these calls are about

Players named most often.

Matthew StaffordQB33 takes
Josh AllenQB32 takes

Who is good at this

MissedTakes score for this kind only. Zero means no better than guessing.

Joe Hayden100 accuracy · 1 graded+150.0
Shannon Sharpe100 accuracy · 2 graded+125.0
Chad Ochocinco Johnson

By publisher

2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)100.0 · 2 graded
Nightcap (podcast)75.0 · 5 graded

Every NFL award picks take

651–675 of 698

SearchVerdictSeasonSort

0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it

Josh Allen

5 of 100

Joe Burrow4 of 100

Offensive Rookie Of The Year · 202529 calls

Ashton Jeanty5 of 29
Tetairoa McMillan ✓ won5 of 29
Emeka Egbuka4 of 29
Cam Ward3 of 29
Tyler Shough3 of 29
Travis Hunter2 of 29

Offensive Player Of The Year · 202520 calls

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ✓ won7 of 20
Jonathan Taylor4 of 20
Puka Nacua2 of 20
Jahmyr Gibbs2 of 20
Christian McCaffrey2 of 20
Ja'Marr Chase1 of 20

Defensive Player Of The Year · 202518 calls

Myles Garrett ✓ won6 of 18
Micah Parsons4 of 18
Jared Verse2 of 18
Jalen Carter2 of 18
Maxx Crosby1 of 18
Aidan Hutchinson1 of 18

Defensive Rookie Of The Year · 202517 calls

Abdul Carter5 of 17
Carson Schwesinger ✓ won4 of 17
Shemar Stewart2 of 17
Malaki Starks2 of 17
Travis Hunter2 of 17
Jihaad Campbell2 of 17

Comeback Player Of The Year · 20256 calls

Christian McCaffrey ✓ won2 of 6
Joe Burrow1 of 6
Aidan Hutchinson1 of 6
Joe Flacco1 of 6
Javonte Williams1 of 6

Lamar JacksonQB

28 takes

Joe BurrowQB28 takes

Dak PrescottQB26 takes

Patrick MahomesQB22 takes

Myles GarrettLB18 takes

Drake MayeQB17 takes

Teams involved

Los Angeles Rams54 takes
Dallas Cowboys47 takes
Baltimore Ravens34 takes
Cincinnati Bengals33 takes
Detroit Lions33 takes
Tampa Bay Buccaneers33 takes
Kansas City Chiefs29 takes
Buffalo Bills29 takes

100 accuracy · 1 graded

+111.0

Brady Quinn100 accuracy · 1 graded+111.0

Jonas Knox100 accuracy · 1 graded+111.0

Damien Woody100 accuracy · 1 graded+106.0

Brandon Carney100 accuracy · 6 graded+100.0

Brandon Anderson50 accuracy · 2 graded+100.0

Andrew Erickson100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0

Pat McAfee100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0

Lance Zierlein100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0

Bucky Brooks100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0

Bobby Bones100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0

Connor "Boston Connor" Campbell100 accuracy · 1 graded+100.0

Dan Pizzuta50 accuracy · 2 graded+89.0

Peter Schrager75 accuracy · 3 graded+75.0

Greg Jennings33 accuracy · 6 graded+66.7

Charles Davis33 accuracy · 6 graded+66.7

Jason McIntyre67 accuracy · 6 graded+66.7

The Miz33 accuracy · 3 graded+66.7

Tom Brady50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0

Colleen Wolfe50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0

Brandon Sneide50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0

Richard Sherman48 accuracy · 11 graded+47.6

Pat Gustavson40 accuracy · 5 graded+40.0

Gregg Rosenthal39 accuracy · 18 graded+38.9

Wade Phillips17 accuracy · 6 graded+33.3

Marty Mornhinweg17 accuracy · 6 graded+33.3

Dirk Koetter17 accuracy · 6 graded+33.3

Nick Wright29 accuracy · 9 graded+33.3

Rich Eisen25 accuracy · 37 graded+31.8

Colin Cowherd25 accuracy · 4 graded+25.0

Jourdan Rodrigue22 accuracy · 17 graded+22.2

Chris Brockman12 accuracy · 24 graded+14.6

Dave Wannstedt7 accuracy · 8 graded+14.3

Manti Te'o0 accuracy · 10 graded+0.0

Kyle Brandt0 accuracy · 9 graded+0.0

Jamie Erdahl0 accuracy · 9 graded+0.0

Mike Tannenbaum0 accuracy · 6 graded+0.0

Chris Long0 accuracy · 6 graded+0.0

Chuck Pagano0 accuracy · 6 graded+0.0

Mike Martz0 accuracy · 6 graded+0.0

Matt Cassel0 accuracy · 6 graded+0.0

Marvin Lewis0 accuracy · 6 graded+0.0

Joe Thomas0 accuracy · 6 graded+0.0

Ronde Barber0 accuracy · 6 graded+0.0

Robert Smith0 accuracy · 6 graded+0.0

Rich Gannon0 accuracy · 6 graded+0.0

Mike Zimmer0 accuracy · 5 graded+0.0

Dan Patrick0 accuracy · 3 graded+0.0

Eric Mangini0 accuracy · 3 graded+0.0

John Middlekauff0 accuracy · 3 graded+0.0

Chris Broussard0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0

Willie Colon0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0

Mitchell Eisenstein0 accuracy · 2 graded+0.0

Cam Jordan0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Tom Pelissero0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Justin Penik0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Marvin Prince0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Todd Fritz0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Seton O'Connor0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Nick Wesseling0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Paul Pabst0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Danny Parkins0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Joe Johnson0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Kurt Warner0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Seth Rollins0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Matt Ioannidis0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Brandon Graham0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Tony Dungy0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

TJ Jefferson0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Ryan Reynolds0 accuracy · 1 graded+0.0

Jack McKessy0 accuracy · 7 graded-14.3

The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)

100.0 · 3 graded

John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)100.0 · 1 graded

Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)70.0 · 11 graded

The 33rd Team35.9 · 104 graded

Locked On Packers (podcast)50.0 · 2 graded

The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)40.3 · 39 graded

First Things First (podcast)33.3 · 9 graded

Overreaction Monday (podcast)21.3 · 47 graded

Move the Sticks (podcast)22.8 · 65 graded

The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)17.2 · 23 graded

Around the NFL (podcast)12.5 · 24 graded

The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)0.0 · 7 graded

Sharp Football Analysis0.0 · 3 graded

Pushing the Pile (podcast)0.0 · 1 graded

Fox Sports Radio (podcast)0.0 · 1 graded

The Draft Network0.0 · 7 graded

Miss · 0Matt CasselAward Picks

Derrick Henry to win Comeback Player of the Year

2. Titans RB Derrick Henry (5 votes: Barber, Cassel, ...)

Derrick HenryTennessee Titans

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Mike MartzAward Picks

Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year

2. Bills QB Josh Allen (4 votes: Davis, Koetter, Martz, Zimmer)

Josh AllenBuffalo Bills

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Ronde BarberAward Picks

Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year

1. Rams DT Aaron Donald (5 votes: Barber, ...)

Aaron DonaldLos Angeles Rams

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Dave WannstedtAward Picks

Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year

1. Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (10 votes: ... Wannstedt ...)

Aidan HutchinsonDetroit Lions

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Greg JenningsAward Picks

Christian McCaffrey to win Comeback Player of the Year

3. Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey (2 votes: Jennings, Mornhinweg)

Christian McCaffreyCarolina Panthers

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Matt CasselAward Picks

Justin Herbert to win Most Valuable Player

T2. Chargers QB Justin Herbert (3 votes: Matt Cassel, Mike Martz, Mike Tannenbaum)

Justin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Ronde BarberAward Picks

Travon Walker to win Defensive Rookie of the Year

2. Jaguars edge rusher Travon Walker (4 votes: Barber, Lewis, Martz, Smith)

Travon WalkerJacksonville Jaguars

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Mike TannenbaumAward Picks

Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year

1. Rams DT Aaron Donald (5 votes: ... Tannenbaum)

Aaron DonaldLos Angeles Rams

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Robert SmithAward Picks

Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year

1. Rams DT Aaron Donald (5 votes: Barber, Gannon, Martz, Smith, Tannenbaum)

Aaron DonaldLos Angeles Rams

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Ronde BarberAward Picks

Derrick Henry to win Comeback Player of the Year

2. Titans RB Derrick Henry (5 votes: Barber, ...)

Derrick HenryTennessee Titans

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Marty MornhinwegAward Picks

Lamar Jackson to win Offensive Player of the Year

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (1 vote: Mornhinweg)

Lamar JacksonBaltimore Ravens

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Wade PhillipsAward Picks

T.J. Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year

T2. Steelers LB T.J. Watt (3 votes: Koetter, Lewis, Phillps)

T.J. WattPittsburgh Steelers

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Marvin LewisAward Picks

Dak Prescott to win Offensive Player of the Year

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (1 vote: Lewis)

Dak PrescottDallas Cowboys

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Hit · 100Dirk KoetterAward Picks

Sauce Gardner to win Defensive Rookie of the Year

Jets CB Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner (1 vote: Koetter)

Sauce GardnerNew York Jets

a naive guess scored 0+200 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Dave WannstedtAward Picks

Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year

1. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (6 votes: ... Wannstedt)

Jonathan TaylorIndianapolis Colts

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Mike ZimmerAward Picks

Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year

2. Bills QB Josh Allen (4 votes: Davis, Koetter, Martz, Zimmer)

Josh AllenBuffalo Bills

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Mike TannenbaumAward Picks

Justin Herbert to win Most Valuable Player

T2. Chargers QB Justin Herbert (3 votes: Matt Cassel, Mike Martz, Mike Tannenbaum)

Justin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Mike TannenbaumAward Picks

Justin Herbert to win Offensive Player of the Year

Chargers QB Justin Herbert (1 vote: Tannenbaum)

Justin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Greg JenningsAward Picks

Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year

1. Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (10 votes: ... Jennings ...)

Aidan HutchinsonDetroit Lions

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Chuck PaganoAward Picks

Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year

1. Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (10 votes: ... Pagano ...)

Aidan HutchinsonDetroit Lions

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Joe ThomasAward Picks

Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year

1. Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (10 votes: ... Thomas ...)

Aidan HutchinsonDetroit Lions

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Rich GannonAward Picks

Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year

1. Rams DT Aaron Donald (5 votes: Barber, Gannon, ...)

Aaron DonaldLos Angeles Rams

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Chris LongAward Picks

Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player

1. Bills QB Josh Allen (7 votes: ... Chris Long ...)

Josh AllenBuffalo Bills

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Mike ZimmerAward Picks

Joe Burrow to win Most Valuable Player

Bengals QB Joe Burrow (1 vote: Mike Zimmer)

Joe BurrowCincinnati Bengals

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

Miss · 0Dave WannstedtAward Picks

Michael Thomas to win Comeback Player of the Year

Saints WR Michael Thomas (1 vote: Wannstedt)

Michael ThomasNew Orleans Saints

a naive guess scored 0+0 skillsaid Sep 6, 2022the article →

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