“Where your hot plays for Week eighteen... Camleb Williams, who we've seen, he's tied for eighth overall last four games.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skill
How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- none named
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 106
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB16
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB5
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
“if I was a betting man right now, I would say this is not gonna work. I don't think Caleb is good... you would put money on Caleb Williams not working out... worst case scenario, Kayleb Williams is a bust, which is a tough word to say when you draft a guy number one overall”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skill
How this was scored
- pick:
- 1
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- the pick returned what picks at that cost typically return
- skill:
- -194
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- best finish:
- QB5 in 2025
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- had to reach:
- QB9
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- seasons played:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- measured against:
- the 26 QBs taken within 16 picks of 1, across every draft we hold
“There's just so much meat on the bone here for kid Williams to grow. He's currently at thirteen. I think he's a great like first QB to take or your highest QB two.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- He's currently at thirteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB16
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB5
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
“Caleb for MVP.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Caleb Williams is gonna take a massive leap. I'm talking top five MVP incoming.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“So I understand. A top five MVP finish? Yeah. Why not? ... Alright, Chris. Thank you. I'll give you this one.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Caleb Williams is gonna break the Bears passing and touchdown records in 2025... 30 touchdowns and 3,900 yards.”
Hit · 98Scored 97.87a naive guess scored 31.73+132.28 skill
How this was scored
- naive:
- 2596.37
- skill:
- 132.28
- what happened:
- 3942
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 97.87
- baseline:
- 31.73
- predicted:
- 3900
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 3541
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 1651.74
- zero at percent out:
- 50
“Caleb Williams is gonna break the Bears passing and touchdown records in 2025. That's a tall order, pal. 30 touchdowns and 3,900 yards.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 24.61+110.78 skill
How this was scored
- naive:
- 16.82
- skill:
- 110.78
- what happened:
- 27
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 24.61
- predicted:
- 30
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 20
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
“if it doesn't affect the ability to throw the ball and Caleb Williams goes off for three hundred and forty passing yards against those corners, that would not surprise me at all”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 31.73-31.73 skill
How this was scored
- naive:
- 2596.37
- skill:
- -31.73
- what happened:
- 3942
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 31.73
- predicted:
- 340
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- 3541
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 1651.74
- zero at percent out:
- 50
“Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bear's history to throw for four thousand yards and thirty plus touchdowns.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 24.61+110.78 skill
How this was scored
- naive:
- 16.82
- skill:
- 110.78
- what happened:
- 27
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 24.61
- predicted:
- 30
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 20
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
“Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bear's history to throw for four thousand yards and thirty plus touchdowns.”
Hit · 97Scored 97.1a naive guess scored 31.73+130.74 skill
How this was scored
- naive:
- 2596.37
- skill:
- 130.74
- what happened:
- 3942
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 97.1
- baseline:
- 31.73
- predicted:
- 4000
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 3541
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 1651.74
- zero at percent out:
- 50
“Ericson you got him at ten... I think that he can be a back end fantasy QB one”
Close · 58Scored 58.33a naive guess scored 8.33+55.5 skill
How this was scored
- skill:
- 55.5
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 58.33
- baseline:
- 8.33
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 16
- actual finish:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- predicted finish:
- 10
“Fitzy, you got him at fourteen fifty... I just think QB ten is too high for a guy who just hasn't been a very good passer over the last month and a half.”
Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 8.33+18.5 skill
How this was scored
- skill:
- 18.5
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 8.33
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 16
- actual finish:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- predicted finish:
- 14
“They're building this whole thing around Caleb Williams. They're saying, Caleb, it is your job.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
- club:
- CHI
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire early first-round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“He's expected to hear his name called first overall next spring.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2023
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score