Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 3,980
- Graded
- 2,914
- Average accuracy
- 64.4
- Pundits
- 208
73% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,914 / 3,980
graded
1,066 still pending
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman75 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero87 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt44 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler32 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Natalie Kerwin84 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+47.5
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+46.7
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+46.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+43.5
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+43.2
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.4
- Emory Hunt47 accuracy · 9 graded+40.1
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+39.7
- Pat Fitzmaurice60 accuracy · 42 graded+39.6
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+38.4
- Colin Cowherd64 accuracy · 60 graded+38.0
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+37.4
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+37.2
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+36.7
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+36.3
- Lance Zierlein55 accuracy · 27 graded+36.2
- Brandon Carney78 accuracy · 18 graded+35.8
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.7
- Scott Bogman64 accuracy · 33 graded+34.1
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Nick Shook89 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+32.3
- Field Yates81 accuracy · 30 graded+32.2
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.3
- Daniel Jeremiah65 accuracy · 226 graded+31.0
- Gregg Rosenthal76 accuracy · 108 graded+30.9
- Bucky Brooks77 accuracy · 99 graded+30.4
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+30.2
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+30.0
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+28.7
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+28.5
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+26.8
- Peter Schrager71 accuracy · 18 graded+25.0
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- Steve Mensch56 accuracy · 14 graded+22.6
- JP Acosta66 accuracy · 69 graded+22.2
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321619 picks · off by 10 on average76.6 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64110 picks · off by 25 on average49.1 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175157 picks · off by 42 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1619 first-round picks the average score is 76.6, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 42% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB21 mocksmocked around 16 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB15 mocksmocked around 9 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF10 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
- C.J. AllenLB7 mocksmocked around 18 · went at 53
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)72.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.0 · 233 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)66.5 · 95 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)83.7 · 34 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)74.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)69.8 · 72 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)55.1 · 13 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)64.8 · 350 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)68.9 · 212 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
176–200 of 3,980
Jeremiah Smith to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
Drake London is great, but he's all the Falcons have at the position. ... Jeremiah Smith has top-five ability
Sammy Brown to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
the Jets will need to find some youth at linebacker. Sammy Brown is a versatile and instinctive linebacker.
Ashton Hampton to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
The Cowboys had dreadful cornerback play last year ... Ashton Hampton is a very big and physical cornerback.
Ryan Williams to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
New York Giants Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama
KJ Bolden to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
Minkah Fitzpatrick is another older player the Jets signed. ... K.J. Bolden is a gifted safety
Dylan Stewart to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
Thus, they may draft Myles Garrett's replacement. Dylan Stewart was very productive at the beginning of his collegiate career.
Leonard Moore to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
The Titans added Alontae Taylor and Cor'Dale Flott to bolster cornerback ... Leonard Moore is a big cornerback
Kewan Lacy to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
The Vikings need to strengthen their backfield. Kewan Lacy is a tough, shifty runner
Will Heldt to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
New Orleans Saints: Will Heidt, DE, Clemson
LaNorris Sellers to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
Pittsburgh will be looking for a new head coach and a new quarterback next spring. LaNorris Sellers has a huge skill set
Colin Simmons to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
The Panthers upgraded their pass rush this offseason ... Collin Simmons has flashed explosive pass-rushing ability
Brandon Parker to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
Los Angeles Chargers / Brandon Baker, OT, Texas
Will Echoles to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
The Bears need to add multiple upgrades to a defensive line... Will Echoles has a good blend of quickness, athleticism, and strength.
Boubacar Traore to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Boubacar Traore, DE, Notre Dame
Trevor Goosby to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
Lane Johnson will retire soon, so the Eagles will need to find a successor. Trevor Goosby is a phenomenal athlete who can take care of speed rushers.
Ellis Robinson to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
San Francisco 49ers: Ellis Robinson, CB, Georgia
David Stone to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
Denver Broncos / David Stone, DT, Oklahoma
John Mateer to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
The Browns passed on a quarterback earlier, but they finally get their man. John Mateer is very accurate and mobile.
Tae Johnson to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
The Patriots have lost some talented safeties lately... Tae Johnson is a tall, ball-hawking safety who tackles well.
Vicari Swain to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
The Seahawks met with plenty of cornerbacks and edge rushers ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft... Vicari Swain is a versatile cornerback
Damien Wilson to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
Cincinnati Bengals / Damon Wilson II, DE, Missouri
Austin Siereveld to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
Buffalo Bills / Austin Siereveld, OT, Ohio State
Jelani McDonald to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
The Jaguars have a good defense, but they could stand to get better at safety. Jelani McDonald is a lengthy safety with good speed.
Charlie Becker to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
Charlie Becker can stretch defenses downfield with his big-play ability. He's also a massive receiver, but his route running is a weakness.
Jordan Seaton to be picked “Round 1, picks 17-32”
Baltimore Ravens / Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)
The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.