Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 3,980
- Graded
- 2,914
- Average accuracy
- 64.4
- Pundits
- 208
73% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,914 / 3,980
graded
1,066 still pending
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman75 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero87 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt44 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler32 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Natalie Kerwin84 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+47.5
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+46.7
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+46.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+43.5
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+43.2
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.4
- Emory Hunt47 accuracy · 9 graded+40.1
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+39.7
- Pat Fitzmaurice60 accuracy · 42 graded+39.6
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+38.4
- Colin Cowherd64 accuracy · 60 graded+38.0
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+37.4
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+37.2
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+36.7
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+36.3
- Lance Zierlein55 accuracy · 27 graded+36.2
- Brandon Carney78 accuracy · 18 graded+35.8
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.7
- Scott Bogman64 accuracy · 33 graded+34.1
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Nick Shook89 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+32.3
- Field Yates81 accuracy · 30 graded+32.2
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.3
- Daniel Jeremiah65 accuracy · 226 graded+31.0
- Gregg Rosenthal76 accuracy · 108 graded+30.9
- Bucky Brooks77 accuracy · 99 graded+30.4
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+30.2
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+30.0
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+28.7
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+28.5
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+26.8
- Peter Schrager71 accuracy · 18 graded+25.0
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- Steve Mensch56 accuracy · 14 graded+22.6
- JP Acosta66 accuracy · 69 graded+22.2
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321619 picks · off by 10 on average76.6 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64110 picks · off by 25 on average49.1 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175157 picks · off by 42 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1619 first-round picks the average score is 76.6, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 42% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB21 mocksmocked around 16 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB15 mocksmocked around 9 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF10 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
- C.J. AllenLB7 mocksmocked around 18 · went at 53
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)72.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.0 · 233 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)66.5 · 95 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)83.7 · 34 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)74.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)69.8 · 72 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)55.1 · 13 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)64.8 · 350 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)68.9 · 212 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
251–275 of 3,980
Kewan Lacy to be picked at number 26
26. Dallas Cowboys (from Packers): Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss
Jyaire Hill to be picked at number 23
23. Los Angeles Chargers: Jyaire Hill, CB, Michigan
Cam Coleman to be picked at number 8
8. Carolina Panthers: Cam Coleman, WR, Texas
Bryant Wesco to be picked at number 21
21. Houston Texans: Bryant Wesco Jr., WR, Clemson
Colin Simmons to be picked at number 6
6. Atlanta Falcons: Colin Simmons, Edge, Texas
Arch Manning to be picked “Top 10” (picks 1–10)
Arch Manning ... Early grade: Top 10
Drake Lindsey to be picked “Day 3” (picks 101–257)
Drake Lindsey ... Early grade: Day 3
Trinidad Chambliss to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
Trinidad Chambliss ... Early grade: Day 2
Julian Sayin to be picked “Early Day 3” (picks 101–179)
Julian Sayin ... Early grade: Early Day 3
Drew Mestemaker to be picked “Late Round 1/early Round 2”
Drew Mestemaker ... Early grade: Late Round 1/early Round 2
LaNorris Sellers to be picked “Late Day 2” (picks 67–100)
LaNorris Sellers ... Early grade: Late Day 2
Jayden Maiava to be picked “Day 3” (picks 101–257)
Jayden Maiava ... Early grade: Day 3
Dante Moore to be picked “Late Round 1/Early Round 2”
Dante Moore ... Early grade: Late Round 1/Early Round 2
C.J. Carr to be picked “Early Day 3” (picks 101–179)
CJ Carr ... Early grade: Early Day 3
Josh Hoover to be picked “Day 3” (picks 101–257)
Josh Hoover ... Early grade: Day 3
Zabien Brown to be picked “early-round potential”
Entering the 2026 season, Brown looks like he has early-round potential for the 2027 draft.
Ryan Coleman-Williams to be picked “an early-round prospect”
Entering the 2026 season, Coleman-Williams could be an early-round prospect for the 2027 NFL Draft.
Zeke Berry to be picked “early-round potential”
Entering the 2026 season, Berry looks like he has early-round potential.
Arch Manning to be picked at number 1
But, if Manning can improve in three particular areas, I believe he will follow in his famous uncles’ footsteps and hear his name called first on draft day.
K.J. Duff to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
KJ Duff ... Early grade: Day 2
Wyatt Young to be picked “Late Day 2” (picks 67–100)
Wyatt Young ... Early grade: Late Day 2
Charlie Becker to be picked “Round 1”
Charlie Becker ... Early grade: Round 1
Cam Coleman to be picked “Round 1”
Cam Coleman ... Early grade: Round 1
Ryan Coleman-Williams to be picked “Early Day 2” (picks 33–67)
Ryan Coleman-Williams ... Early grade: Early Day 2
Mario Craver to be picked “Early Day 2” (picks 33–67)
Mario Craver ... Early grade: Early Day 2
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)
The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.