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MissedTakesThe GoodApps Company

Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
477
Graded
345

72% settled

Average accuracy
50.3

out of 100

Pundits
14

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
91 scored 80+134 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

345 / 477

graded

132 still pending

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.

  • Round 1 · picks 1–32154 picks · off by 11 on average72.9 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–6446 picks · off by 22 on average50.2 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10044 picks · off by 35 on average37.4 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–17576 picks · off by 37 on average35.6 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+49 picks · off by 53 on average23.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 154 first-round picks the average score is 72.9, missing by about 11 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 23.9, missing by 53.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 67% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

401–425 of 477

By sport

NFL — mock draft picks (386 graded)

The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.