Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,137
- Graded
- 2,914
- Average accuracy
- 65.4
- Pundits
- 208
70% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,914 / 4,137
graded
1,223 still pending
By season
- 20211 of 4 graded
- 202365 of 82 graded
- 202498 of 113 graded
- 20251221 of 1402 graded
- 20261529 of 2536 graded
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman75 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Natalie Kerwin84 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+47.5
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+46.7
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+46.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+43.5
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+43.2
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.4
- Emory Hunt47 accuracy · 9 graded+40.1
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+37.4
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+37.2
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+36.7
- Pat Fitzmaurice70 accuracy · 42 graded+36.3
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+36.3
- Lance Zierlein58 accuracy · 27 graded+36.2
- Brandon Carney78 accuracy · 18 graded+35.8
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+35.7
- Scott Bogman68 accuracy · 33 graded+35.6
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.7
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+32.3
- Field Yates81 accuracy · 30 graded+32.2
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.3
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+30.9
- Bucky Brooks78 accuracy · 99 graded+30.4
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+30.2
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+30.0
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+28.7
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+28.5
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+26.8
- Daniel Jeremiah72 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta66 accuracy · 69 graded+22.2
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+20.9
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB22 mocksmocked around 16 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
- C.J. AllenLB7 mocksmocked around 18 · went at 53
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.0 · 233 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)66.5 · 95 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)83.7 · 34 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)77.0 · 232 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)69.8 · 72 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)55.1 · 13 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)68.9 · 212 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)71.2 · 350 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
2801–2825 of 4,137
Denzel Boston to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
Denzel Boston is going to go in the first round
Max Klare to be picked at number 62
Max clair is my favorite of the, bunch but that would that would be at pick sixty. TWO i think that's a great value for, him would be at pick sixty two
Malachi Fields to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
Malachi Fields probably goes in the second round
Sonny Styles to be picked “won't make it to pick 19”
WELL i would say if somehow the league was dumb enough for Sunny styles to fall, There Dan morgan would lose his linebacker card if he didn't run that pick up. There BUT i. DON'T i don't think he's gonna make it. There
Ty Simpson to be picked “thirties forties range”
For me, I have him as you know, he's in the you know, thirties forties range. For me, it's just a pure grade.
Sam Hecht to be picked “late second, early third round range” (picks 33–100)
Sam Heckt from from Kansas State, I think can start day one. He probably goes in the late second, early third, round range.
Jake Slaughter to be picked “third round pick” (picks 65–100)
Jake Slaughter from Florida I think would have a chance as a third round pick to come in and get on the field right away.
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10
Caleb Downs, 10 to Cincinnati.
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
You got the Jets choosing Arbel Reese out of the Ohio State... And you got Reese there at, second overall
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “in that top nine somewhere” (picks 1–9)
So Jeremiah Love is gonna be in that top nine somewhere.
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 5
And then you do have the Giants going and grabbing Carnell Tate... the Giants take him at five
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
And you still have Fernando Mendoza being the top pick in the draft.
Ty Simpson to be picked at number 16
And then you had Ty Simpson going off the board right in the middle to the Jets... So you think about where the jets are picking at 16.
Sonny Styles to be picked “your next 10”
then you move down to your next 10. You got Sonny Styles heading to Dallas.
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3
and Marigoa going to Arizona at three
Matt Moore to be picked “right there with Arch as the number one pick next year”
Dante made a great decision. Not enough starts at 20. Go back to Oregon. Be right there with Arch as the number one pick next year.
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 9
And then you're looking at the end of your top 10 as we just saw. Jeremiah Love, nine to Kansas City.
Akheem Mesidor to be picked at number 20
And they could pick again at 20. They could get maybe Messador from Miami.
Parker Brailsford to be picked “early two hundreds type pick”
But if you're looking at, you know, early two hundreds type pick, to potentially get a guy in there to provide some depth right now... Parker Brailsford certainly someone who could do that.
Oscar Delp to be picked “late round pick”
Oscar Depp could be a late round pick, as well that you go after to to kinda just add depth there
Sonny Styles to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
Lorenzo Styles junior, defensive back, brother of Sonny Styles, Ohio State first round projected linebacker
Jonah Coleman to be picked “round two or round three”
Honestly, I think Kansas City in round two or or round two or round three would make a lot of sense
Oscar Delp to be picked “around round four”
So I do think he'll probably get drafted around round four, but I'm curious what happens after the combine.
Kadyn Proctor to be picked “top five prospect in this class” (picks 1–5)
I have him as top five prospect in this class
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)
the guy ahead of him is probably going to be a top 10 pick because that guy is rightfully great in Jeremiah Love
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)
The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.