Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,009
- Graded
- 2,914
- Average accuracy
- 65.4
- Pundits
- 207
73% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,914 / 4,009
graded
1,095 still pending
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman75 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Natalie Kerwin84 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+47.5
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+46.7
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+46.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+43.5
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+43.2
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.4
- Emory Hunt47 accuracy · 9 graded+40.1
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+37.4
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+37.2
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+36.7
- Pat Fitzmaurice70 accuracy · 42 graded+36.3
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+36.3
- Lance Zierlein58 accuracy · 27 graded+36.2
- Brandon Carney78 accuracy · 18 graded+35.8
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+35.7
- Scott Bogman68 accuracy · 33 graded+35.6
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.7
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+32.3
- Field Yates81 accuracy · 30 graded+32.2
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.3
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+30.9
- Bucky Brooks78 accuracy · 99 graded+30.4
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+30.2
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+30.0
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+28.7
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+28.5
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+26.8
- Daniel Jeremiah72 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta66 accuracy · 69 graded+22.2
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+20.9
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB22 mocksmocked around 16 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
- C.J. AllenLB7 mocksmocked around 18 · went at 53
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.0 · 233 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)66.5 · 95 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)83.7 · 34 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)77.0 · 232 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)69.8 · 72 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)55.1 · 13 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)68.9 · 212 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)71.2 · 350 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
451–475 of 4,009
Dante Moore to be picked “first-round prospect with starter grades” (picks 1–32)
If Moore stays consistent in 2026 to his 2025 performance, he should be a first-round prospect with starter grades from teams.
Dante Moore to be picked “potential high first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
Entering the 2026 season, Moore looks like a potential high first-round pick in the 2027 NFL Mock Draft.
Trevor Goosby to be picked “potential first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
2027 NFL Draft Expectations: Entering the 2026 season, Goosby looks like a potential first-round pick.
LaNorris Sellers to be picked “early-round skill set”
2027 NFL Draft Expectations: Entering the 2026 season, Sellers has an early-round skill set, but he has to play up to it and show improvement and more consistency to be a first-round pick.
Leonard Moore to be picked “Top-5” (picks 1–5)
Leonard Moore ... Early grade: Top-5
Romanas Frederique Jr. to be picked “Early Day 2” (picks 33–67)
Romanas Frederique Jr. ... Early grade: Early Day 2
Ellis Robinson to be picked “Early Day 2” (picks 33–67)
Ellis Robinson IV ... Early grade: Early Day 2
Vicari Swain to be picked “Early Day 2” (picks 33–67)
Vicari Swain ... Early grade: Early Day 2
Kelley Jones to be picked “Late Round 1/early Day 2” (picks 33–67)
Kelley Jones ... Early grade: Late Round 1/early Day 2
Ashton Lampkin to be picked “Round 1”
Ashton Hampton ... Early grade: Round 1
Leonard Moore to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)
While Moore looks like a lock to be a top-10 pick
Jyaire Hill to be picked “Late Day 2” (picks 67–100)
Jyaire Hill ... Early grade: Late Day 2
Kayin Lee to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
Kayin Lee ... Early grade: Day 2
Jalen Mayo to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
Jalen Mayo ... Early grade: Day 2
Zabien Brown to be picked “Late Day 2” (picks 67–100)
Zabien Brown ... Early grade: Late Day 2
- PendingRobert Griffin IIIMock Draft Picks
Arch Manning to be picked “first round pick at quarterback, if not the number one pick in the draft” (picks 1–32)
I think he's put himself in a position to be a first round pick at quarterback, if not the number one pick in the draft, because of how he finished
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Aug 19, 2026 Yhonzae Pierre to be picked “early-round prospect”
2027 NFL Draft Expectations: Entering the 2026 season, Pierre looks like an early-round prospect.
Colin Simmons to be picked “potential first-round prospect” (picks 1–32)
2027 NFL Draft Expectations: Entering the 2026 season, Simmons looks like a potential first-round prospect.
Ahmad Hardy to be picked “Round 1”
Ahmad Hardy ... Early grade: Round 1
Rushawn Baker to be picked “Late Day 2” (picks 67–100)
Wayshawn Parker ... Early grade: Late Day 2
Isaac Brown to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
Isaac Brown ... Early grade: Day 2
Mark Fletcher Jr. to be picked “Late Day 2” (picks 67–100)
Mark Fletcher Jr. ... Early grade: Late Day 2
Aneyas Williams to be picked “Early Day 3” (picks 101–179)
Aneyas Williams ... Early grade: Early Day 3
Nate Carter to be picked “Day 2” (picks 33–100)
Nate Frazier ... Early Grade: Day 2
Hollywood Smothers to be picked “Early Day 3” (picks 101–179)
Hollywood Smothers ... Early grade: Early Day 3
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)
The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.