Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,070
- Graded
- 2,914
- Average accuracy
- 65.4
- Pundits
- 208
72% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,914 / 4,070
graded
1,156 still pending
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman75 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Natalie Kerwin84 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+47.5
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+46.7
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+46.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+43.5
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+43.2
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.4
- Emory Hunt47 accuracy · 9 graded+40.1
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+37.4
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+37.2
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+36.7
- Pat Fitzmaurice70 accuracy · 42 graded+36.3
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+36.3
- Lance Zierlein58 accuracy · 27 graded+36.2
- Brandon Carney78 accuracy · 18 graded+35.8
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+35.7
- Scott Bogman68 accuracy · 33 graded+35.6
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.7
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+32.3
- Field Yates81 accuracy · 30 graded+32.2
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.3
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+30.9
- Bucky Brooks78 accuracy · 99 graded+30.4
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+30.2
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+30.0
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+28.7
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+28.5
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+26.8
- Daniel Jeremiah72 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta66 accuracy · 69 graded+22.2
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+20.9
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB22 mocksmocked around 16 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
- C.J. AllenLB7 mocksmocked around 18 · went at 53
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.0 · 233 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)66.5 · 95 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)83.7 · 34 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)77.0 · 232 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)69.8 · 72 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)55.1 · 13 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)68.9 · 212 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)71.2 · 350 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
1276–1300 of 4,070
- Hit · 88Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 9
Mansour Delaine went pick nine right after, I selected Reuben Bain Junior.
Mansoor DelaneKansas City Chiefs
a naive guess scored 50-50 skillsaid Apr 16, 2026 - Close · 65Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks
Cashius Howell to be picked at number 31
He actually did go in the first round in this mock draft to locked on patriots at thirty first overall.
Cashius HowellNew England Patriots
a naive guess scored 50said Apr 16, 2026 - Hit · 81Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 6
the Dallas Cowboys made a massive trade up with the Cleveland Browns at number six overall... to select safety, Caleb Downs
a naive guess scored 50said Apr 16, 2026 - PendingLocked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks
Francisco Mauigoa to be picked at number 3
The Arizona Cardinals and our friends over at Lockdown Cardinals went with Francis Maui Noah, the offensive tackle out of Miami.
Francisco MauigoaArizona Cardinals
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 16, 2026 Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7
The Washington commanders at number seven... Went with Carnell Tate, the wide receiver out of Ohio State.
Cashius Howell to be picked “the first round” (picks 1–32)
Cassius Howell of Texas a and m whose arms are even shorter and is likely to go in the first round
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
Las Vegas Raiders selected, no surprise, Fernando Mendoza... everyone knows where the Raiders are going
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 16
Jordan Tyson went sixteenth overall to the New York Jets.
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
New York Jets went with David Bailey, the edge rusher out of Texas Tech.
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 8
with the number eight overall selection in the locked on NFL mock draft... I went for Miami edge rusher, Ruben Bane junior
Max Iheanachor to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
They have their choice between Monroe Freeling or Max Ayanatra, who I think is going to go in the first round.
Kaytron Allen to be picked at number 150
including a guy that I'm taking here at round five. Pick one fifty. Penn State running back, Caitron Allen.
Treydan Stukes to be picked at number 73
Round three, pick 73, Arizona cornerback, Traydon Stukes.
Hezekiah Masses to be picked at number 172
Round five, pick one seventy two. Hezekiah Masas out of Cal, the cornerback.
Trey Zuhn to be picked at number 132
But round four, pick one thirty two... That's Texas A and M offensive lineman, Trezun the third.
Tyre West to be picked at number 190
And then at pick one ninety in the sixth round, Tennessee defensive lineman, Tyree West.
K.C. Concepcion to be picked at number 42
Round two, pick 42... Ross, 10 times out of ten... is taking Casey Concepcion at number 42 overall... Texas A and M wide receiver Casey Concepcion
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 8
Right now, round one pick eight, my prediction is Miami edge rusher, Ruben Bain junior.
Dallen Bentley to be picked at number 136
Just a couple of picks later right back on the clock. Oh, with Utah tight end, Dallin Bentley... two selections at one thirty two and one thirty six respectively
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 40
I like Chris Bell a lot, especially given a right situation. At 40, not I don't think he gets picked because he you're talking about coming off the injury.
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top 12” (picks 1–12)
we all assume Jeremiah Love is comfortably gonna go in the top 12
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
Mendoza and Bailey going one, two to the Raiders and Jets respectively.
Caleb Downs to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)
It's on Sonny Styles. It's on Caleb Downs. It's on Jeremiah Love. I think they're all gonna go... top seven.
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 8
And Mansoor Delaney's gonna be sitting there at eight probably
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked “not gonna go in the top 10” (picks 1–10)
I'd also throw in there Venga Yowane, but he's a guard, and he's not gonna go in the top 10.
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)
The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.