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Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,071
Graded
2,914

72% settled

Average accuracy
65.4

out of 100

Pundits
208

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1442 scored 80+730 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,914 / 4,071

graded

1,157 still pending

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

1301–1325 of 4,071

  • Hit · 84Todd McShayMock Draft Picks

    Olaivavega Ioane to be picked “not gonna go in the top 10” (picks 1–10)

    I'd also throw in there Venga Yowane, but he's a guard, and he's not gonna go in the top 10.

    Olaivavega Ioane

    a naive guess scored 50+37.5 skillsaid Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Todd McShayMock Draft Picks

    Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)

    I think they're all gonna go there's a really good chance they all go in the top seven.

    Jeremiyah Love

    a naive guess scored 50+37.5 skillsaid Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Todd McShayMock Draft Picks

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    Mendoza and Bailey going one, two to the Raiders and Jets respectively.

    Fernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders

    a naive guess scored 50+37.5 skillsaid Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 88Todd McShayMock Draft Picks

    Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7

    Jets are gonna move up to seven for Carnell Tate ... Why do you like this as well?

    Carnell TateNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+37.5 skillsaid Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Close · 48Todd McShayMock Draft Picks

    Ty Simpson to be picked at number 30

    you have them moving from thirty fourth overall, second pick of night two, to the third to last pick of night one, and take Tye Simpson ... I did I think a fifth and a sixth round pick to move up a handful of spots to to 30.

    Ty SimpsonArizona Cardinals

    a naive guess scored 50+37.5 skillsaid Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 81Todd McShayMock Draft Picks

    Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 5

    why do you have them taking Mount Ella fifth here? ... so they were leaning towards Maui Noah. I went Maui Noah.

    Francis MauigoaNew York Giants

    a naive guess scored 50+37.5 skillsaid Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Todd McShayMock Draft Picks

    Sonny Styles to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)

    It's on Sonny Styles. It's on Caleb Downs. It's on Jeremiah Love. I think they're all gonna go... top seven.

    Sonny Styles

    a naive guess scored 50+38.33 skillsaid Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 96Todd McShayMock Draft Picks

    Sonny Styles to be picked at number 6

    I've got the Cowboys trading up for Styles ... if you move up and get a Sonny Styles at number six

    Sonny StylesDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50+38.33 skillsaid Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 96Todd McShayMock Draft Picks

    Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4

    it makes sense that the Titans would then go and take Jeremiah Love with Bailey and Reese gone

    Jeremiyah LoveTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 50+37.5 skillsaid Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 92Todd McShayMock Draft Picks

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3

    your latest mock draft 4.0 that came out on this very day has Arbel Reiss going to the Saints third overall

    Arvell ReeseNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+37.5 skillsaid Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Todd McShayMock Draft Picks

    Arvell Reese to be picked “top seven” (picks 1–7)

    the best players in this draft are the running back Jeremiah Love, the the off ball linebacker Sonny Styles, conversion guy Arbel Rees... I think they're all gonna go there's a really good chance they all go in the top seven.

    Arvell Reese

    a naive guess scored 50+37.5 skillsaid Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Ollie ConnollyMock Draft Picks

    David Bailey to be picked at number 2

    they just designed their offensive game plan around David Bailey, who might be the second pick in the draft

    David Bailey

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • PendingOllie ConnollyMock Draft Picks

    Rueben Bain to be picked “from the seventh pick to the twelfth pick, with twelve as the floor”

    I think he was always going to go probably from the seventh pick to the twelfth pick, and I was still put twelve as the floor.

    Rueben BainMiami Dolphins

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • PendingGregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks

    Keionte Scott to be picked “He might be a late second, he might be third”

    He might be a late second, he might be third. Who knows

    Keionte ScottMiami Dolphins

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • PendingOllie ConnollyMock Draft Picks

    Akheem Mesidor to be picked “more in the twenties type range”

    What would you invest in his fifteen two highs? It more in the twenties type range.

    Akheem MesidorMiami Dolphins

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • PendingGregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks

    Rueben Bain to be picked “taken by the Cowboys at No. 12 at the latest”

    Well twelve is the Dallas Cowboys... he's not gonna get past the Cowboys... I would think Jerry Jones would take him.

    Rueben BainMiami Dolphins

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 81Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks

    Rueben Bain to be picked “the top ten, twelve, maybe at the max” (picks 1–10)

    he obviously plays a premium position that the style of play ultimately would have him getting drafted in the top ten, twelve, maybe at the max

    Rueben BainMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks

    David Bailey to be picked “the top six” (picks 1–6)

    it's it's hard to imagine him getting out of the top six

    David Bailey

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Ollie ConnollyMock Draft Picks

    Malachi Lawrence to be picked “the first round” (picks 1–32)

    I think fifteen is where it starts... they would struggle to sleep that night if they didn't come away from the first round with Malachi Lawrence.

    Malachi Lawrence

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 92Dane BruglerMock Draft Picks

    Chase Bisontis to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    I heard Dane Brugler say the other day that he thinks Chase Besantas can go on the first round.

    Chase Bisontis

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 92Peter BukowskiMock Draft Picks

    Julian Neal to be picked “fourth round” (picks 101–140)

    and then in the fourth round, you got a Will Lee, who by the way just had a visit with the packers, a Malik Muhammad, a Julian Neal, which seems to be where he's gonna come off the board.

    Julian Neal

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 15, 2026the article →
  • PendingTucker FranklinMock Draft Picks

    Jordyn Tyson to be picked “still available at the Chiefs' No. 9 pick (pick 9 or later)”

    And, really, it seems like he will be there. Not I'd be surprised if he isn't, really, at this point.

    Jordyn Tyson

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 14, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 81Tucker FranklinMock Draft Picks

    Rueben Bain to be picked “top 10 prospect” (picks 1–10)

    I would assume that he still will remain a top 10 prospect in this, this draft class the way it is.

    Rueben BainMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 14, 2026the article →
  • PendingJohn LedyardMock Draft Picks

    Mansoor Delane to be picked “off the board before pick No. 17”

    Mansoor Delaine's off the board. Jermott McCoy's off the board, Let's say at seventeen. Likely right now.

    Mansoor Delane

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 14, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100John LedyardMock Draft Picks

    Chris Johnson to be picked “in the first round” (picks 1–32)

    people are talking about his San Diego State corner, Chris Johnson. I think that's a Chris Johnson not only blew up the combine, but he's also crushed the interview process of teams. He's gonna go in the first round. I feel really confident about that.

    Chris Johnson

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 14, 2026the article →

By sport

NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)

The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.