Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,090
Graded
2,914

71% settled

Average accuracy
65.4

out of 100

Pundits
208

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1442 scored 80+730 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,914 / 4,090

graded

1,176 still pending

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

1851–1875 of 4,090

  • Miss · 2Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Fernando Carmona to be picked at number 228

    Round 7 (No. 228 overall): Fernando Carmona, IOL, Arkansas

    Fernando CarmonaNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+44.64 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 71Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 16

    Round 1 (No. 16 overall): Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

    Jordyn TysonNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+44.64 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 88Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2

    Round 1 (No. 2 overall): Arvell Reese, LB/EDGE, Ohio State

    Arvell ReeseNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+45.24 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 2Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Fernando Carmona to be picked at number 228

    Round 7 (No. 228 overall): Fernando Carmona, IOL, Arkansas

    Fernando CarmonaNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+45.24 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 2Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Kaelon Black to be picked at number 179

    Round 5 (No. 179 overall): Kaelon Black, RB, Indiana

    Kaelon BlackNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+45.24 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 71Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 16

    Round 1 (No. 16 overall): Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

    Jordyn TysonNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+45.24 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 0Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Tyreak Sapp to be picked at number 140

    Round 4 (No. 140 overall): Tyreak Sapp, EDGE, Florida

    Tyreak SappNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+45.24 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 92Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Brandon Cisse to be picked at number 50

    Brandon Cisse's draft stock has cooled a bit in recent weeks, but he still seems like a likely top-50 pick.

    Brandon Cisse

    a naive guess scored 50+45.24 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 6Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Jalon Kilgore to be picked at number 103

    Round 4 (No. 103 overall): Jalon Kilgore, SAF, South Carolina

    Jalon KilgoreNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+45.24 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 0Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Trebor Pena to be picked at number 242

    Round 7 (No. 242 overall): Trebor Pena, WR, Penn State

    Trebor PenaNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+45.24 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 42Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Ty Simpson to be picked at number 33

    Round 2 (No. 33 overall): Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

    Ty SimpsonNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+45.24 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 71Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Brandon Cisse to be picked at number 44

    Round 2 (No. 44 overall): Brandon Cisse, CB, South Carolina

    Brandon CisseNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+45.24 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 81Daniel WadeMock Draft Picks

    Rueben Bain to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)

    His teammate, Ruben Bayne Junior, obviously going to be a top 10 pick more than likely.

    Rueben BainMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 30, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 88Ross JacksonMock Draft Picks

    Zion Young to be picked at number 42

    So round two, pick 42, I went with Missouri defensive end, Zion Young.

    Zion YoungNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Mar 30, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 30Ross JacksonMock Draft Picks

    D.J. Campbell to be picked at number 172

    Over at one seventy two in rounds in round five, I went with Texas guard DJ Campbell.

    D.J. CampbellNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+45 skillsaid Mar 30, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 1Ross JacksonMock Draft Picks

    Tim Keenan to be picked at number 132

    We're gonna go with at one thirty two, Alabama's Tim Keenan the third, six one, three hundred and twenty seven pound nose tackle

    Tim KeenanNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Mar 30, 2026the article →
  • PendingRoss JacksonMock Draft Picks

    Dallen Bentley to be picked at a slot they never named

    And then finally, we'll wrap up with a tight end. Utah's Dallin Bentley ... was the final selection there to wrap that one up.

    Dallen BentleyNew Orleans Saints

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 30, 2026the article →
  • PendingRoss JacksonMock Draft Picks

    Nadame Tucker to be picked “Round five”

    Round five. Two more picks here in round five. I went with Western Michigan edge rusher, Nadame Tucker

    Nadame TuckerNew Orleans Saints

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 30, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 88Ross JacksonMock Draft Picks

    Caleb Downs to be picked at number 8

    The, number one, round one pick eight selection for me ... is going to be Ohio State safety, Caleb Downs.

    Caleb DownsNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Mar 30, 2026the article →
  • Close · 77Ross JacksonMock Draft Picks

    Zachariah Branch to be picked at number 73

    We're grabbing our first one in this draft, round three, pick 73. Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch

    Zachariah BranchNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Mar 30, 2026the article →
  • PendingRoss JacksonMock Draft Picks

    Ja'Kobi Lane to be picked “round four”

    And then we'll go USC wide receiver Jacobi Lane ... So in round four, we're grabbing both of those guys, Tim Keenan the third as well as Jacoby Lane.

    Ja'Kobi LaneNew Orleans Saints

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 30, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 96Locked On Chiefs (podcast)Mock Draft Picks

    Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 15

    they did not like Kenyan Saddiq at 14, but I guarantee you he goes at 15 because Tampa Bay is not letting him go at 15 at past 15

    Kenyon SadiqTampa Bay Buccaneers

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 30, 2026
  • PendingJason AndersonMock Draft Picks

    Ty Simpson to be picked “won't be there at sixteen”

    Nope. Nope. He won't be there at sixteen. If you want him, you better take him at two.

    Ty Simpson

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Mar 27, 2026
  • Hit · 100Locked On Cardinals (podcast)Mock Draft Picks

    Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    Because on this fine show, I've said for the last few months, Ty Sims is going in the first round.

    Ty Simpson

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 27, 2026
  • Close · 65Charles DavisMock Draft Picks

    Ty Simpson to be picked at number 3

    A respected NFL media member mocked the Arizona Cardinals taking Tye Simpson at number three overall... he had Ty Simpson being chosen by the Arizona Cardinals at number three overall.

    Ty SimpsonArizona Cardinals

    a naive guess scored 50said Mar 27, 2026the article →

By sport

NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)

The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.