Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,137
- Graded
- 2,914
- Average accuracy
- 65.4
- Pundits
- 208
70% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,914 / 4,137
graded
1,223 still pending
By season
- 20211 of 4 graded
- 202365 of 82 graded
- 202498 of 113 graded
- 20251221 of 1402 graded
- 20261529 of 2536 graded
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman75 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Natalie Kerwin84 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+47.5
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+46.7
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+46.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+43.5
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+43.2
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.4
- Emory Hunt47 accuracy · 9 graded+40.1
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+37.4
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+37.2
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+36.7
- Pat Fitzmaurice70 accuracy · 42 graded+36.3
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+36.3
- Lance Zierlein58 accuracy · 27 graded+36.2
- Brandon Carney78 accuracy · 18 graded+35.8
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+35.7
- Scott Bogman68 accuracy · 33 graded+35.6
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.7
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+32.3
- Field Yates81 accuracy · 30 graded+32.2
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.3
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+30.9
- Bucky Brooks78 accuracy · 99 graded+30.4
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+30.2
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+30.0
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+28.7
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+28.5
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+26.8
- Daniel Jeremiah72 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta66 accuracy · 69 graded+22.2
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+20.9
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB22 mocksmocked around 16 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
- C.J. AllenLB7 mocksmocked around 18 · went at 53
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.0 · 233 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)66.5 · 95 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)83.7 · 34 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)77.0 · 232 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)69.8 · 72 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)55.1 · 13 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)68.9 · 212 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)71.2 · 350 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
2676–2700 of 4,137
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 2
Maybe a shock at two, though. A safety Caleb Downs joining Aaron Glenn and the jets.
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 4
The other being the aforementioned Reese, number four overall for Tennessee, and new defensive minded head coach, Robert Saleh.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
I would be stunned if he didn't go number one, right. I think it's highly unlike that he goes anywhere but Vegas.
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top ten” (picks 1–10)
I don't think that's going to prevent them from taking a running back in the in the top ten.
Will Kacmarek to be picked “sometime on day three”
I think if you want a blocking tight end, I expect him to come off the board sometime on day three to do just that.
Kadyn Proctor to be picked “a top 10 player in this class” (picks 1–10)
There are guys where I'm high on Kane Proctor. I think he's a top 10 player in this class.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
We all know Fernando Mendoza is going to go number one overall.
Max Iheanachor to be picked “the back of the first round” (picks 1–32)
So if he runs really well, he tests really well, I could see him sneaking into the back of the first round.
Jermod McCoy to be picked “top half of the first round” (picks 1–32)
I think if he does, he'll be a top half of the first round sort of corner.
Christian Miller to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
So I would bet on Christian Miller because of the youth and because of the explosiveness (asked who would work his way into the first round)
Spencer Fano to be picked “top 10 player in this class” (picks 1–10)
I'm high on Spencer Fano, the Utah offense tackle. I am as top 10 player in this class.
D'Angelo Ponds to be picked “a top 50 guy” (picks 1–50)
I have him as a top 50 guy, but there's no doubt that he is going to be an outlier either way.
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
R. L. Reese, who could be potentially a New York Jet number two overall based on some mock drafts... And if he's the second overall pick, that wouldn't surprise me by any stretch of the imagination.
Rueben Bain to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
So you're gonna be a top 10 pick in this draft? God willing, hopefully. Top five? God willing, hopefully.
Avieon Terrell to be picked “first rounder” (picks 1–32)
the only three first rounders that I would have in this class are McCoy, Avion Tyrell, and Mansoor Delaine
Jermod McCoy to be picked “first rounder” (picks 1–32)
the only three first rounders that I would have in this class are McCoy, Avion Tyrell, and Mansoor Delaine
Sonny Styles to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)
I'm becoming less and less convinced that Sunny is even making it out of the top eight at this point.
Mansoor Delane to be picked “first rounder” (picks 1–32)
the only three first rounders that I would have in this class are McCoy, Avion Tyrell, and Mansoor Delaine
Monroe Freeling to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
So I don't think it'd be a shock if he ended up going to top 10 this year, especially to your point with how tackle starved a lot of these teams are.
Sonny Styles to be picked “a top eight player” (picks 1–8)
Sonny Styles, the linebacker from Ohio State's a top eight player.
Omar Cooper to be picked “top fifty player”
He certainly is worthy of being in that conversation as a top fifty player.
Elijah Sarratt to be picked “day two”
we'll see his buddy Elijah Surant a little bit later on in the draft, but I think probably on day two
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “eight to nine”
there's a sweet spot for him to come off the board, and I would say this sweet spot is eight to nine
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
showed you just about everything you could ever want to see from a quarterback prospect that is likely going to go number one overall
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
he's slotted He's going to the Raiders. Let's go to pick number two... But Mendoza there's not a debate about where he's going to go in this class.
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)
The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.