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Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,154
Graded
2,914

70% settled

Average accuracy
65.4

out of 100

Pundits
208

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1442 scored 80+730 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,914 / 4,154

graded

1,240 still pending

By season

  • 20211 of 4 graded
  • 202365 of 82 graded
  • 202498 of 113 graded
  • 20251221 of 1402 graded
  • 20261529 of 2553 graded

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

4001–4025 of 4,154

  • Hit · 84Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Walter Nolen to be picked at number 12

    Walter Nolan a little bit higher than I had him, But this is ODIGAZOOA is a free agent, and so I'm like, Okay, well, who's an upfield disruptor and that's that's Walter Nolan from Old miss

    Walter Nolen

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 21Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Will Johnson to be picked at number 11

    So eleven Will Johnson to the Niners

    Will JohnsonSan Francisco 49ers

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Mason Graham to be picked at number 5

    And then Jacksonville kicked around a lot of different ideas for them. I just ended up settling on Mason Gramm.

    Mason GrahamJacksonville Jaguars

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 96Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Travis Hunter to be picked at number 3

    The Giants... Now you get Travis Hunter to provide some excitement wherever you want to play him offense, defense.

    Travis HunterNew York Giants

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 96Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Cam Ward to be picked at number 2

    so next Cleveland... they need to get they need an upgraded quarterback... I think absolutely cam Ward can eventually get to... So it's a cheap quarterback makes sense.

    Cam WardCleveland Browns

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 92Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Abdul Carter to be picked at number 1

    First off, Tennessee Titans, first pick... So boom, I pump in Abdul Carter

    Abdul CarterTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 92Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Josh Conerly Jr. to be picked at number 31

    I mentioned it teased that Josh Connor and the tackle goes to the Kansas City Chiefs.

    Josh Conerly Jr.Kansas City Chiefs

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Close · 55Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    TreVeyon Henderson to be picked at number 24

    Trayvon Henderson go into the Minnesota Vikings.

    TreVeyon HendersonMinnesota Vikings

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Close · 74Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Matthew Golden to be picked at number 30

    Matthew Golden, one of my favorites in the draft or sever out of Texas. He goes to Buffalo.

    Matthew GoldenBuffalo Bills

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 84Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Donovan Jackson to be picked at number 28

    Detroit Donovan Jackson who can slide right in and replace Zeidler who's a free agent.

    Donovan JacksonDetroit Lions

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 18Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Darius Alexander to be picked at number 26

    this is the one you tease this a little earlier about the Rams. Darius Alexander, big, long rangey athletic.

    Darius AlexanderLos Angeles Rams

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Grey Zabel to be picked at number 18

    Uh, Seattle dressed the interior of the offensive line. I wish Gray is able could clone himself... there there he goes at eighteen

    Grey ZabelSeattle Seahawks

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 100Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Omarion Hampton to be picked at number 22

    a maryin Hampton going next to the Chargers and again thinking playmakers not positions

    Omarion HamptonLos Angeles Chargers

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Close · 52Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Ashton Jeanty to be picked at number 21

    The Pittsburgh Steelers taking Ashton Genty running back from Boise and State.

    Ashton JeantyPittsburgh Steelers

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 88Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Jahdae Barron to be picked at number 17

    We get keep it going here at seventeen one of my favorite players in the draft and Jaday... Baron from Texas... Their next pick for Cincinnati is forty nine.

    Jahdae BarronCincinnati Bengals

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 96Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Tyler Booker to be picked at number 13

    thirteen. Miami's got to get better along the offensive line, especially in the interior. Tyler Booker, I love him as a player.

    Tyler BookerMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Miss · 11Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Mike Green to be picked at number 9

    So the next one probably the earliest you've seen Mike Green from Marshall go... Kellen Moore being the being the coach there... but this gives him a proven pass rusher with production.

    Mike Green

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Close · 74Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Tyler Warren to be picked at number 7

    Next I had speaking of Tyler Warren, Tyler Warren again, I think the second time in a row going to the Jets... that's a winner. Pick at seven.

    Tyler WarrenNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Close · 74Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Armand Membou to be picked at number 14

    Membo from Missouri going to the Colts. He could start it right tackle when Braden Smith's days are done

    Armand MembouIndianapolis Colts

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 81Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Malaki Starks to be picked at number 32

    And then finally the Philadelphia Eagles... I'm taking a safety... So yeah, Malachi starks

    Malaki StarksPhiladelphia Eagles

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Close · 65Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Shemar Stewart to be picked at number 27

    The Ravens Shamar Stewart... just big, long, physical, fast

    Shemar StewartBaltimore Ravens

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Close · 68Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Josh Simmons to be picked at number 23

    The Green Bay Packers Josh Simmons... so I had him go to Green Bay

    Josh SimmonsGreen Bay Packers

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Close · 65Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Colston Loveland to be picked at number 20

    And then with Denver, I gave him the joker that they appear are wanting there, and that's that's a very talented tight end Coulston Levin.

    Colston LovelandDenver Broncos

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Hit · 88Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Kenneth Grant to be picked at number 16

    Sixteen through twenty sixteen Arizona Cardinals Kenneth Grant

    Kenneth GrantArizona Cardinals

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →
  • Close · 77Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Emeka Egbuka to be picked at number 25

    a Mecca Buka. He gets reunited with his college quarterback C J. Stroud Houston.

    Emeka EgbukaHouston Texans

    a naive guess scored 50+25.64 skillsaid Feb 18, 2025the article →

By sport

NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)

The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.