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Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,072
Graded
2,914

72% settled

Average accuracy
65.4

out of 100

Pundits
208

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1442 scored 80+730 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,914 / 4,072

graded

1,158 still pending

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

1426–1450 of 4,072

  • Close · 57Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 12

    I wouldn't have been surprised though, if you had put Dylan Theeneman to the Bengals at twelve. At ten instead he goes to the Cowboys.

    Dillon ThienemanDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50+32.27 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 88Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Max Iheanachor to be picked at number 24

    you keep the tackle run going. With Max Ianachra from Arizona State... Ianacher with the Browns

    Max IheanachorCleveland Browns

    a naive guess scored 50+32.27 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Close · 68Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks

    K.C. Concepcion to be picked “as high as top fifteen; not getting past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties” (picks 1–15)

    No Casey concepts you on. That's where I disagree the most. I think he could go as high as top fifteen... So I don't think he's getting past a lot of receiver needy teams in the late twenties.

    K.C. Concepcion

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 84Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Caleb Downs to be picked at number 7

    You keep the Ohio State train going at number seven. It's Caleb Downs... the Commanders going with Caleb Downs

    Caleb DownsWashington Commanders

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Close · 74Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Colton Hood to be picked at number 30

    The Dolphins take Colton Hood, the Tennessee cornerback, at thirty

    Colton HoodMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Close · 77Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Blake Miller to be picked at number 23

    Blake Miller from Clemson. You know the Eagles... find their replacement potentially for Lane Johnson here

    Blake MillerPhiladelphia Eagles

    a naive guess scored 50+32.27 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 92Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6

    that's why he's worthy of the sixth overall pick in this draft... Carnell Tate, you have going to the Browns

    Carnell TateCleveland Browns

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 84Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Makai Lemon to be picked at number 16

    if we're recapping the sixteenth to twenty picks, you had Lemon to the Jets... Makai Lemon out of usc

    Makai LemonNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 88Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 13

    You have the Rams up next at thirteen, taking Francis Mauiinoa from Miami

    Francis MauigoaLos Angeles Rams

    a naive guess scored 50+32.27 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Close · 74Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Rueben Bain to be picked at number 8

    Bain ends up going the next pick... But New Orleans still hasn't resigned Cam Jordan... I think there's eight really standout players in this draft, and you took him in the top eight in a row

    Rueben BainNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 27Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Lee Hunter to be picked at number 19

    Lee Hunter from Texas Tech going to the Panthers

    Lee HunterCarolina Panthers

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Close · 71Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Omar Cooper to be picked at number 22

    The Chargers are up next. You have them taking another wide receiver Omar Cooper... That's why it fits here, I think at twenty two.

    Omar CooperLos Angeles Chargers

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Close · 57Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 25

    Caden Proctor from Alabama to the Bears... I think at twenty five that's really good value on Proctor

    Kadyn ProctorChicago Bears

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 18Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked at number 18

    Minnesota taking Emmanuel McNeil warren the safety from Toledo

    Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenMinnesota Vikings

    a naive guess scored 50+32.27 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Close · 46Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 26

    You have Jordan Tyson, the Arizona state wide receiver, falling all the way to twenty six... So if Tyson falls to this point for them in the draft

    Jordyn TysonBuffalo Bills

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    David Bailey to be picked at number 2

    at number two to the Jets... We went with Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey

    David BaileyNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+32.27 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 28

    you had Caleb Lomu the tackle going to the Texans at twenty eight

    Caleb LomuHouston Texans

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 30Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Avieon Terrell to be picked at number 20

    and then Avian Terrell, AJ's brother, the Clemson cornerback, going to the Cowboys

    Avieon TerrellDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50+32.27 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 35Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Cashius Howell to be picked at number 17

    The Casius Howell pick to the Lions at seventeen

    Cashius HowellDetroit Lions

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 96Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 4

    You have them going to the Titans... that's at number four, so your Reese falls to them

    Arvell ReeseTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • PendingNick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at a slot they never named

    Did you consider taking Kenyan Sadik the tight end for the Texans at twenty eight instead he goes to the Chiefs

    Kenyon SadiqKansas City Chiefs

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 81Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Spencer Fano to be picked at number 14

    The Ravens, you know, start what's going to be a run of tackles with Spencer Fano

    Spencer FanoBaltimore Ravens

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 92Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 21

    So maybe that's why the Steelers. You have another tackle off the board, Monroe Freeling.

    Monroe FreelingPittsburgh Steelers

    a naive guess scored 50+32.35 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    There wasn't much to talk about with the number one overall pick. Yeah, from Nando Mendoza going to the Raiders

    Fernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders

    a naive guess scored 50+32.27 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 2Nick ShookMock Draft Picks

    Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 10

    Instead you have him taking a cornerback Jermad McCoy from Tennessee

    Jermod McCoyCincinnati Bengals

    a naive guess scored 50+32.27 skillsaid Apr 9, 2026the article →

By sport

NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)

The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.