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Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,090
Graded
2,914

71% settled

Average accuracy
65.4

out of 100

Pundits
208

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1442 scored 80+730 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,914 / 4,090

graded

1,176 still pending

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

1801–1825 of 4,090

  • Hit · 92Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 14

    You got Kenyan Sadique. It'll be the second straight year, an incredibly athletic tight end, goes fourteenth overall... You got Kenyan Sadique going to to Baltimore.

    Kenyon SadiqBaltimore Ravens

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 88Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2

    You still think the Jets choose him second overall, Matt? Yeah. I do.

    Arvell ReeseNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 96Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 7

    So then you got, the final four of your first, top 10 here. Mansoor delaying going to Washington

    Mansoor DelaneWashington Commanders

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 2Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 12

    and then it's whoever the the top two defensive backs are available for the Cowboys at twelve and twenty on their draft board... Getting McCoy in there

    Jermod McCoyDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 77Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Rueben Bain to be picked at number 9

    and then Bailey, Bane, and Styles going to the Saints, Chiefs, and Bengals... getting Ruben Bayne and Adrian Terrell gives them weapons on defense

    Rueben BainKansas City Chiefs

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 59Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Drew Allar to be picked “second round choice” (picks 33–64)

    and then you have the Rams using a second round choice on Drew Aller of Penn State

    Drew AllarLos Angeles Rams

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 0Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Garrett Nussmeier to be picked at number 53

    You would have Garrett Nussmeyer being the choice... for the Steelers fifty third overall

    Garrett NussmeierPittsburgh Steelers

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Dillon Thieneman to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    You're also seeing Dylan Thieneman being a a Sharpie pick for the Vikings

    Dillon ThienemanMinnesota Vikings

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 96Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Jadarian Price to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)

    And I'd like this pick for Minnesota Jadarion Price... would be a really nice draft choice with Dylan Thienham in first round, second round

    Jadarian PriceMinnesota Vikings

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 74Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Colton Hood to be picked at number 30

    You have them Colton Hood, a corner and thirtieth overall pick from the the, trade of Jalen Waddle to Denver

    Colton HoodMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 55Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Eli Stowers to be picked at number 40

    40 overall, you've got Eli Stowers who we had on the program last week going to Miami

    Eli StowersMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 68Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    K.C. Concepcion to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)

    And and Casey Concepcion to the Giants

    K.C. ConcepcionNew York Giants

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Carson Beck to be picked “starts off the third round” (picks 65–100)

    I think he starts off the third round for me going to the Arizona Cardinals

    Carson BeckArizona Cardinals

    a naive guess scored 50+40.4 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 96Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4

    You have Jeremiah Love going to Tennessee fourth overall... So I I go back to Love as the best player in this class in my opinion, and they have a need there.

    Jeremiyah LoveTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 77Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5

    that leaves every other Ohio State player available for the Giants, and you think they go downs

    Caleb DownsNew York Giants

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 77Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    David Bailey to be picked at number 8

    and then Bailey, Bane, and Styles going to the Saints, Chiefs, and Bengals

    David BaileyNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+40.4 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 74Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3

    The cardinals do go with Francis Mowonoa from Miami... Yeah. I think given what Arizona has, where they're at right now, there's not a quarterback that they should take here.

    Francis MauigoaArizona Cardinals

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 92Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6

    And then Tate would be available for the Browns? You think that would be Todd Monken's first draft choice as the Browns? I do.

    Carnell TateCleveland Browns

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 88Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Sonny Styles to be picked at number 10

    for me this year, it would be Sonny Stiles at ten... So he would be an absolute steal at 10 for the Bengals

    Sonny StylesCincinnati Bengals

    a naive guess scored 50+40.4 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 68Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Makai Lemon to be picked at number 11

    I think whoever, is the best receiver available for the Dolphins, that's gonna be 11. Mekhi Lemmon is a very popular choice there... which means Miami would go Makai Lemmon

    Makai LemonMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 68Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 21

    You you do have the, Steelers going tackle, at 21 and Caden Procter

    Kadyn ProctorPittsburgh Steelers

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Matt MillerMock Draft Picks

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    we know it's Fernando Mendoza one

    Fernando Mendoza

    a naive guess scored 50+41.62 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 88Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Denzel Boston to be picked at number 36

    Round 2 (No. 36 overall): Denzel Boston, WR, Washington

    Denzel BostonLas Vegas Raiders

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 42Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Domonique Orange to be picked at number 102

    Round 4 (No. 102 overall): Domonique Orange, IDL, Iowa State

    Domonique OrangeLas Vegas Raiders

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →
  • Close · 50Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks

    Robert Spears-Jennings to be picked at number 208

    Round 6 (No. 208 overall): Robert Spears-Jennings, SAF, Oklahoma

    Robert Spears-JenningsLas Vegas Raiders

    a naive guess scored 50+39.29 skillsaid Mar 31, 2026the article →

By sport

NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)

The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.