Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,099
Graded
2,914

71% settled

Average accuracy
65.4

out of 100

Pundits
208

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1442 scored 80+730 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,914 / 4,099

graded

1,185 still pending

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

2126–2150 of 4,099

  • Hit · 96Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10

    Cincinnati Bengals at 10. Ohio State safety Kale downs.

    Caleb DownsCincinnati Bengals

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Close · 77Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Spencer Fano to be picked at number 3

    why I have Spencer Fano going here, the Utah tackle, right tackle, which would be, I think, probably the cardinal's biggest need

    Spencer FanoArizona Cardinals

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Hit · 81Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 11

    Miami Dolphins at 11. I have them going Oregon, tight end, Kenyan, Saddiq.

    Kenyon SadiqMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Close · 77Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 12

    Dallas Cowboys. I have been going LSU cornerback, Mansoor, Delaine here.

    Mansoor DelaneDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Hit · 92Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Sonny Styles to be picked at number 5

    Number five, New York Giants. This is where Sonny Styles goes, the Ohio State linebacker.

    Sonny StylesNew York Giants

    a naive guess scored 50+35.01 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Hit · 88Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 15

    Tampa Bay Bucks, 15. I am going Caden Proctor here.

    Kadyn ProctorTampa Bay Buccaneers

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Miss · 0Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 30

    Denver Broncos, pick 30. I have them going. This is where Kendrick Falk comes off the board.

    Keldric FaulkDenver Broncos

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Miss · 0Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 22

    Vega, you want is the next pick to the Los Angeles charges here. Pick 22.

    Olaivavega Ioane

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Miss · 3Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 16

    Jets ... Pick 16 from the Indianapolis Colts ... we get back Jermoud McCoy

    Jermod McCoyNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Close · 57Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 6

    I had the going Monroe Freeland, the Georgia offensive tackle.

    Monroe FreelingCleveland Browns

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Hit · 84Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Carnell Tate to be picked at number 8

    New Orleans Saints, I have them going Ohio State wide receiver, Cardinal Tate.

    Carnell TateNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Hit · 100Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    Number one, no surprise. It's Fernando Mendoza, the Indiana quarterback going to the Las Vegas Raiders.

    Fernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Close · 74Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    David Bailey to be picked at number 9

    Kansas City Chiefs ... I want David Bailey to Texas Tech defensive end.

    David BaileyKansas City Chiefs

    a naive guess scored 50+35.01 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Hit · 88Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Blake Miller to be picked at number 20

    Dallas Cowboys, pick 20 ... I have them going Clemson right tackle, Blake Miller.

    Blake MillerDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50+35.01 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Miss · 39Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    C.J. Allen to be picked at number 31

    31, New England Patriots ... I think they would definitely use 31 on such, and it's CJ Allen, the Georgia linebacker.

    C.J. AllenNew England Patriots

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Close · 74Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 18

    18, Minnesota Vikings. Oregon safety, Dylan Thieneman added to that Brian Flores defense.

    Dillon ThienemanMinnesota Vikings

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Hit · 88Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2

    Number two ... I'm not going to go anywhere other than Arbel Reese until someone tells me otherwise for the New York Jets.

    Arvell ReeseNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Close · 71Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Ty Simpson to be picked at number 21

    I 21 Pittsburgh Steelers. I have been going Ty Simpson, the Alabama quarterback.

    Ty SimpsonPittsburgh Steelers

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Miss · 0Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Mckay Leonard to be picked at number 13

    I'd say it's the Los Angeles Rams. This is the one from the Atlanta Falcons. I have been going USC wide receiver here, Mckay Leonard.

    Mckay LeonardLos Angeles Rams

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Hit · 84JP AcostaMock Draft Picks

    Carnell Tate to be picked at number 8

    I definitely agree with you with Tate to the Saints because, like you said, Tyler Shuck needs some explosive playmakers.

    Carnell TateNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50-25 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Omar Cooper to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    I have the four niners going to Omar Cooper Junior.

    Omar Cooper

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Hit · 92Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Max Iheanachor to be picked at number 23

    Philadelphia Eagles at 23. I have them going Arizona State offense tackle Maxi Honnichor.

    Max IheanachorPhiladelphia Eagles

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Hit · 84Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 7

    Washington commanders at seven ... I am going Jeremiah Love here

    Jeremiyah LoveWashington Commanders

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Close · 50Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 24

    24, Cleveland Browns, second pick of the first round ... Arizona statewide receiver Jordan Tyson is the pick here.

    Jordyn TysonCleveland Browns

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026
  • Close · 62Pushing the PileMock Draft Picks

    Rueben Bain to be picked at number 4

    Alright. Number four, Tennessee Titans, Ruben Bane junior.

    Rueben BainTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 50+33.83 skillsaid Mar 16, 2026

By sport

NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)

The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.