Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,137
- Graded
- 2,914
- Average accuracy
- 65.4
- Pundits
- 208
70% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,914 / 4,137
graded
1,223 still pending
By season
- 20211 of 4 graded
- 202365 of 82 graded
- 202498 of 113 graded
- 20251221 of 1402 graded
- 20261529 of 2536 graded
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman75 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Natalie Kerwin84 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+47.5
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+46.7
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+46.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+43.5
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+43.2
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.4
- Emory Hunt47 accuracy · 9 graded+40.1
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+37.4
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+37.2
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+36.7
- Pat Fitzmaurice70 accuracy · 42 graded+36.3
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+36.3
- Lance Zierlein58 accuracy · 27 graded+36.2
- Brandon Carney78 accuracy · 18 graded+35.8
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+35.7
- Scott Bogman68 accuracy · 33 graded+35.6
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.7
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+32.3
- Field Yates81 accuracy · 30 graded+32.2
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.3
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+30.9
- Bucky Brooks78 accuracy · 99 graded+30.4
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+30.2
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+30.0
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+28.7
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+28.5
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+26.8
- Daniel Jeremiah72 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta66 accuracy · 69 graded+22.2
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+20.9
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB22 mocksmocked around 16 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
- C.J. AllenLB7 mocksmocked around 18 · went at 53
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.0 · 233 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)66.5 · 95 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)83.7 · 34 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)77.0 · 232 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)69.8 · 72 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)55.1 · 13 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)68.9 · 212 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)71.2 · 350 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
2576–2600 of 4,137
Jordyn Tyson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
He's one of four wide receivers going in the first round of Mel's draft with... followed by Jordan Tyson to the Ravens
David Bailey to be picked “somewhere between pick two and pick four”
I think David Bailey reinforced yesterday. He's going somewhere between pick two and pick four... with teams from two to four in the Jets, Cardinals, and Titans that definitely need pass rush help, wouldn't surprise me if that is his range.
CC Maui Noah to be picked “the first 15 picks”
I think both of these guys have a chance to be taken in the first 15 picks.
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “as high as number three overall or maybe slides to the Chiefs at number nine”
a much more important philosophical question that I think dictates whether he goes as high as number three overall or maybe slides to the Chiefs at number nine
Ty Simpson to be picked “late in first round” (picks 1–32)
So my take is I could see the Rams late in first round saying listen, Stafford signs a two year deal. This kid's not ready to play.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
He's gonna go number one and invest a lot to him. ... talking about, you know, obviously, going to the Raiders, that's gonna be the best selling jersey in the NFL next year
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
One is obviously the, de facto first overall selection in Fernando Mendoza, and then there's you who played in the final game of college football this year.
Malachi Lawrence to be picked “Day two ... might go earlier”
Day two ... Malachi Lawrence. Yeah, might go earlier Did people envision because of what he did here at Indy
- Hit · 100Move the SticksMock Draft Picks2025 season
Arvell Reese to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
in RVL, Reese obviously is probably has a better shot at top five at this point just because of the thought that he's an edge rusher
a naive guess scored 50said Feb 27, 2026 Caleb Banks to be picked “first round lock” (picks 1–32)
freak athlete, explosive to me, first round lock you can lock him in
Sonny Styles to be picked “within the top ten” (picks 1–10)
he submitted Himself as a top ten player ... To me, it's the lock that he's going within the top ten
- Hit · 92Move the SticksMock Draft Picks2025 season
Sonny Styles to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
You might see him both off in the top five. Rvel Reese in Sonny in Sonny styles
a naive guess scored 50said Feb 27, 2026 Brandon Cisse to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
If he shows up and shows out athletically, we'll talk about him locking in his spot in the first round.
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
Styles goes... We love his top 10. Right? Like, there's no question he he doesn't come out of the top 10.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
So Fernando Mendoza will check the box... Well, I just think with the Raiders, it's we've you know, it feels like Mendoza is the guy there.
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “the neighborhood of 789”
I I think he he's gonna park his car in the neighborhood of 789
Carnell Tate to be picked “drafted by the Giants in his mock draft”
Why do you have the Giants snagging Cornell tape right now? Well, I go with the theory of you got a second year quarterback...
Arvell Reese to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
there's gonna be four Buckeyes in the top 10... And Reese.
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 4
Now, Ruben Bain, we had the discussion... the tape warrants being in that conversation right there... But that's where where I had them going.
Caleb Downs to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
there's gonna be four Buckeyes in the top 10... Downs could go.
Carnell Tate to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
there's gonna be four Buckeyes in the top 10... that Tate could go.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
The first overall pick in the draft was at the podium this morning. Correct? Alright. So Fernando Mendoza will check the box.
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
I I tend to think if it's close, they probably go with an edge rusher... Like, I think David Bailey at this point in time is where I would peg them.
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)
How do you look at Sonny Styles and Arvel Rees and tonight Caleb Downs and not think that's three top 10 picks.
Caleb Downs to be picked “top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)
How do you look at Sonny Styles and Arvel Rees and tonight Caleb Downs and not think that's three top 10 picks.
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)
The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.