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Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,154
Graded
2,914

70% settled

Average accuracy
65.4

out of 100

Pundits
208

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1442 scored 80+730 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,914 / 4,154

graded

1,240 still pending

By season

  • 20211 of 4 graded
  • 202365 of 82 graded
  • 202498 of 113 graded
  • 20251221 of 1402 graded
  • 20261529 of 2553 graded

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

4051–4075 of 4,154

  • Hit · 100Dan PizzutaMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Caleb Williams to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)

    we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks

    Caleb Williams

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 24, 2024the article →
  • Close · 40Dan PizzutaMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Jer'Zhan Newton to be picked at number 15

    Our big board has Newton 15th overall and first at the position.

    Jer'Zhan Newton

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 24, 2024the article →
  • Close · 40Dan PizzutaMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Bo Nix to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)

    Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.

    Bo Nix

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 24, 2024the article →
  • Miss · 3Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Audric Estimé to be picked at number 65

    2. Audric Estime, Notre Dame Big Board Rank : 65

    Audric Estimé

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Miss · 18Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    MarShawn Lloyd to be picked at number 128

    11. MarShawn Lloyd, USC Big Board Rank : 128

    MarShawn Lloyd

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Close · 50Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Bucky Irving to be picked at number 109

    6. Bucky Irving, Oregon Big Board Rank : 109

    Bucky Irving

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Close · 57Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Braelon Allen to be picked at number 121

    9. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin Big Board Rank : 121

    Braelon Allen

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Miss · 3Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Jawhar Jordan to be picked at number 125

    10. Jawhar Jordan, Louisville Big Board Rank : 125

    Jawhar Jordan

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Miss · 0Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Dillon Johnson to be picked at number 119

    8. Dillon Johnson, Washington Big Board Rank : 119

    Dillon JohnsonWashington Commanders

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Miss · 2Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Dylan Laube to be picked at number 112

    7. Dylan Laube, New Hampshire Big Board Rank : 112

    Dylan Laube

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Close · 42Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Jonathon Brooks to be picked at number 66

    3. Jonathan Brooks, Texas Big Board Rank : 66

    Jonathon Brooks

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Miss · 11Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Jase McClellan to be picked at number 134

    15. Jase McClellan, Alabama Big Board Rank : 134

    Jase McClellan

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Miss · 7Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Will Shipley to be picked at number 67

    4. Will Shipley, Clemson Big Board Rank : 67

    Will Shipley

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Close · 65Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Jaylen Wright to be picked at number 130

    13. Jaylen Wright, Tennessee Big Board Rank : 130

    Jaylen WrightTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Hit · 96Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Ray Davis to be picked at number 129

    12. Ray Davis, Kentucky Big Board Rank : 129

    Ray Davis

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Miss · 0Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Cody Schrader to be picked at number 131

    14. Cody Schrader, Missouri Big Board Rank : 131

    Cody Schrader

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Close · 77Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Trey Benson to be picked at number 60

    1. Trey Benson, Florida State Big Board Rank : 60

    Trey Benson

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Close · 65Sports Info SolutionsMock Draft Picks2024 season

    Blake Corum to be picked at number 73

    5. Blake Corum, Michigan Big Board Rank : 73

    Blake Corum

    a naive guess scored 50+18.96 skillsaid Mar 19, 2024
  • Close · 42Snoog's Dynasty SocietyMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Jaylen Wright to be picked “day 2 draft capital” (picks 33–100)

    Jaylen Wright is going to be the fastest RB at the combine and earn day 2 draft capital.

    Jaylen WrightTennessee Titans

    a naive guess scored 50said Feb 28, 2024
  • Miss · 0Connor LivesayMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Tyler Owens to be picked “drafted on Day 3” (picks 101–257)

    Though he is expected to be drafted on Day 3, the Texas Tech defensive back is one of the best overall athletes in the draft.

    Tyler Owens

    a naive guess scored 50said Feb 28, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 96Connor LivesayMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Byron Murphy II to be picked “top-15 pick” (picks 1–15)

    1. Texas iDL Byron Murphy II emerges as top-15 pick

    Byron Murphy II

    a naive guess scored 50said Feb 28, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 96Charlie CampbellMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Peter Skoronski to be picked “top-10 choice” (picks 1–10)

    Another player who was viewed as very likely to end up as top-10 choice was Northwestern offensive tackle Peter Skoronski.

    Peter Skoronski

    a naive guess scored 50said Feb 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Charlie CampbellMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Bryce Young to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)

    four players who are viewed as definitely going as the top-10 picks ... Alabama quarterback Bryce Young

    Bryce Young

    a naive guess scored 50said Feb 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Charlie CampbellMock Draft Picks2023 season

    Tyree Wilson to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)

    four players who are viewed as definitely going as the top-10 picks ... Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson

    Tyree Wilson

    a naive guess scored 50said Feb 24, 2024the article →
  • Hit · 100Charlie CampbellMock Draft Picks2023 season

    C.J. Stroud to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)

    four players who are viewed as definitely going as the top-10 picks ... Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud

    C.J. Stroud

    a naive guess scored 50said Feb 24, 2024the article →

By sport

NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)

The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.