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Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,072
Graded
2,914

72% settled

Average accuracy
65.4

out of 100

Pundits
208

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1442 scored 80+730 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,914 / 4,072

graded

1,158 still pending

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

1501–1525 of 4,072

  • Hit · 100Mike RennerMock Draft Picks

    K.C. Concepcion to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    Jordan Tyson, McKay Lemmon, Carmel Tate, Omar Cooper Junior, and Casey Concepcion. Those five, I I all expect to go first round.

    K.C. Concepcion

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Mike RennerMock Draft Picks

    Jordyn Tyson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    whether it's, you know, Jordan Tyson, McKay Lemmon, Carmel Tate, Omar Cooper Junior, and Casey Concepcion. Those five, I I all expect to go first round. I expect them to be the first five off the board in some order

    Jordyn Tyson

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Mike RennerMock Draft Picks

    Makai Lemon to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    Jordan Tyson, McKay Lemmon, Carmel Tate, Omar Cooper Junior, and Casey Concepcion. Those five, I I all expect to go first round.

    Makai Lemon

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 32Mike RennerMock Draft Picks

    Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    Caleb Downs from Ohio State, Emmanuel McNeil Warren from Toledo... These are first round safeties for my money.

    Emmanuel McNeil-Warren

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Mike RennerMock Draft Picks

    Caleb Downs to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    Caleb Downs from Ohio State, Emmanuel McNeil Warren from Toledo... These are first round safeties for my money.

    Caleb Downs

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • PendingJP AcostaMock Draft Picks

    Kayden McDonald to be picked “day two, late day one range”

    there's a log jam of nose tackles with Lee Hunter, Kaden McDonald, Christian Miller, Dominic Orange, Dale Jackson Junior, all sort of like clumped in that day two, late day one range

    Kayden McDonald

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • PendingJP AcostaMock Draft Picks

    Genesis Smith to be picked “day two”

    Trajan Stukes, Genesis Smith, both guys from Arizona who I think are gonna get picked day two

    Genesis Smith

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100JP AcostaMock Draft Picks

    Mansoor Delane to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    I have all three of them as first rounders

    Mansoor Delane

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • PendingJP AcostaMock Draft Picks

    Treydan Stukes to be picked “day two”

    Trajan Stukes, Genesis Smith, both guys from Arizona who I think are gonna get picked day two

    Treydan Stukes

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Mike RennerMock Draft Picks

    Omar Cooper to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    Jordan Tyson, McKay Lemmon, Carmel Tate, Omar Cooper Junior, and Casey Concepcion. Those five, I I all expect to go first round.

    Omar Cooper

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 92Mike RennerMock Draft Picks

    Sonny Styles to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)

    So where he comes off the board, if it's top five, will be the first time since 2019, and I think he will.

    Sonny Styles

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Close · 50JP AcostaMock Draft Picks

    Avieon Terrell to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    I have all three of them as first rounders

    Avieon Terrell

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 88Mike RennerMock Draft Picks

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2

    with Arvell Reese, who's the top guy on the board, obviously, for a lot of people who's probably gonna be the first one drafted at number two to the Jets

    Arvell ReeseNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100David DroegemeierMock Draft Picks

    Gennings Dunker to be picked “third round” (picks 65–100)

    we wanted to look in round three... It's Jennings Dunker.

    Gennings DunkerLos Angeles Chargers

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Close · 74David DroegemeierMock Draft Picks

    Denzel Boston to be picked “first round (Chargers at No. 22)” (picks 1–32)

    in the first round, we're gonna give you some interesting options including me going with a wide receiver in the first round. And I'm going with the big bodied Denzel Boston from Washington.

    Denzel BostonLos Angeles Chargers

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Daniel WadeMock Draft Picks

    Peter Woods to be picked “first round (Chargers at No. 22)” (picks 1–32)

    I went a different direction in round one. I went with Peter Woods, the interior defensive line from Clemson

    Peter WoodsLos Angeles Chargers

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 0David DroegemeierMock Draft Picks

    Derek Moore to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)

    Today, I went with Derek Moore, the edge rusher from Michigan. (second round pick in the mock)

    Derek MooreLos Angeles Chargers

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Close · 57Daniel WadeMock Draft Picks

    Jalen Farmer to be picked “third round” (picks 65–100)

    That's Jalen Farmer, the Kentucky guard... as far as the third round picks goes, like, I thought he was super solid in pass protection.

    Jalen FarmerLos Angeles Chargers

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Close · 52Daniel WadeMock Draft Picks

    R Mason Thomas to be picked at number 55

    it's our Mason Thomas, the edge from Oklahoma... You get him at 55, which I do think he's a flawed enough player to slide there.

    R Mason ThomasLos Angeles Chargers

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Derek BrownMock Draft Picks

    Carnell Tate to be picked “top ten pick” (picks 1–10)

    because I'm like, dude, he's always been a top ten pick of we talking about top ten or now top five. I mean, you can make a case for the Giants, you can make a case for the Tennessee Titans to take him at four or five.

    Carnell Tate

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Joe MarinoMock Draft Picks

    Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10 grade” (picks 1–10)

    So he has a first round grade, but he also has a top 10 grade.

    Sonny Styles

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • PendingJoe MarinoMock Draft Picks

    Red Murdock to be picked “late six, early seven”

    And then Red Murdoch is number 14 out of Buffalo, late six, early seven in terms of where I value him.

    Red MurdockBuffalo Bills

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 0Joe MarinoMock Draft Picks

    Deontae Lawson to be picked “fourth to early fifth round range” (picks 101–181)

    I grade him in that that fourth probably that fourth to early fifth round range... Deontay Lawson out of Alabama is linebacker 11. He's a fourth round grade.

    Deontae Lawson

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 19Joe MarinoMock Draft Picks

    Kyle Louis to be picked “third round grade” (picks 65–100)

    Number eight is Kyle Lewis out of Pittsburgh. He's a third round grade.

    Kyle LouisPittsburgh Steelers

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Joe MarinoMock Draft Picks

    Jacob Rodriguez to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)

    My linebacker five is Jacob Rodriguez out of Texas Tech, second round grade. ... I value him in the second round.

    Jacob Rodriguez

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 8, 2026the article →

By sport

NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)

The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.