Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,115
- Graded
- 2,914
- Average accuracy
- 65.4
- Pundits
- 208
71% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,914 / 4,115
graded
1,201 still pending
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman75 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Natalie Kerwin84 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+47.5
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+46.7
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+46.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+43.5
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+43.2
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.4
- Emory Hunt47 accuracy · 9 graded+40.1
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+37.4
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+37.2
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+36.7
- Pat Fitzmaurice70 accuracy · 42 graded+36.3
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+36.3
- Lance Zierlein58 accuracy · 27 graded+36.2
- Brandon Carney78 accuracy · 18 graded+35.8
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+35.7
- Scott Bogman68 accuracy · 33 graded+35.6
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.7
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+32.3
- Field Yates81 accuracy · 30 graded+32.2
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.3
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+30.9
- Bucky Brooks78 accuracy · 99 graded+30.4
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+30.2
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+30.0
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+28.7
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+28.5
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+26.8
- Daniel Jeremiah72 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta66 accuracy · 69 graded+22.2
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+20.9
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB22 mocksmocked around 16 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
- C.J. AllenLB7 mocksmocked around 18 · went at 53
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.0 · 233 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)66.5 · 95 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)83.7 · 34 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)77.0 · 232 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)69.8 · 72 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)55.1 · 13 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)68.9 · 212 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)71.2 · 350 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
2301–2325 of 4,115
Monroe Freeling to be picked “first half of the first round” (picks 1–32)
He's going He's probably gonna go. In the first half of the first round
Gennings Dunker to be picked “day two”
Dunker from Iowa is going to go on day two
Jadarian Price to be picked “day two”
I thought Jadari and Price had a really good workout... those are the four guys... I think the other three all go on stay two.
Mike Washington to be picked “day two”
The you know Washington junior from Arkansas. He's you know, either the third or the fourth guy... I think the other three all go on stay two.
Keylan Rutledge to be picked “Day two”
Rutlets from Georgia Tech's going to go on Day two.
Germie Bernard to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
Jeremy Bernard is going to be a really really good player... I think he's got a really good shot of going in the second round
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “round one”
those are the four guys... one for sure in round one. I think the other three all go on stay two.
Ty Simpson to be picked “bottom of the second round, bottom of the first round” (picks 1–64)
I'm talking about the bottom of the second round, bottom of the first round... I would be okay at the bottom of the first, but hearing what I'm hearing about him and people talking about top six, I was like, no, I can't.
Germie Bernard to be picked “middle of the second round” (picks 33–64)
I had given him a day two grade, and I think he just kind of slidifies himself as the middle of the second round type of prospect.
Leka Uhatafe to be picked at number 22
And then at 22 overall... with the chargers at 22, I look at four players in particular. One of them is Vega Ohanae.
David Bailey to be picked “the Dolphins' first pick of the Jeff Haffley era”
you have the Dolphins winding up with David Bailey for for, the first pick there for the Jeff Haffley era
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “back end of the first round to the 49ers” (picks 1–32)
but Saddique to the niners, why is that because you think, obviously... you add him
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
has Fernando Mendoza one, Arvell Reese two... Why do you think the Jets choose Arvel Rees over everybody else not named Fernando Mendoza?
Ty Simpson to be picked at number 21
You have the Steelers going for Ty Simpson twenty first overall... I kind of had him go at that point because I think he's going to be a mid to first round pick
Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 6
the Giants could still potentially get the players that you have in your mock draft, and Tate and Monroe Freeling for the Giants and Browns respectively
Avieon Terrell to be picked at number 20
But Avion Terrell, he's too good of a football player... I'd consider them at number 20
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 4
and look at the fourth spot, Sonny Styles to the Tennessee titans... I have a hard time thinking he gets out of the top five now.
Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 12
going up to number 12 with Dylan Thieneman... I think that he is well worth that twelfth overall pick for Dallas
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
Your mock draft coming out of the combine, has Fernando Mendoza one
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 8
Let's talk Jeremiah Love. You have him landing eight to the Saints... I think Jeremiah Love is locked himself into a top 10 overall selection.
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 5
You have Karnell Tate, fifth to the Giants.
Caleb Banks to be picked “doesn't get to pick 22”
I think they'd take Caleb Banks if he gets to 22, but I don't think he gets to 22.
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
what you're hearing from this week, how he's interviewing, is he's he's not making it out of the top 10
Rueben Bain to be picked “top 15” (picks 1–15)
we haven't seen a guy with that short of arms go in the top 100. Right. He's he's gonna go in the top 15. Yeah. He might be going in the top 10. He might go in the top five.
Treydan Stukes to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
They don't have the balls to put Stukes in the second round like I do.
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)
The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.