Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,115
- Graded
- 2,914
- Average accuracy
- 65.4
- Pundits
- 208
71% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,914 / 4,115
graded
1,201 still pending
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman75 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Natalie Kerwin84 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+47.5
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+46.7
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+46.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+43.5
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+43.2
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.4
- Emory Hunt47 accuracy · 9 graded+40.1
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+37.4
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+37.2
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+36.7
- Pat Fitzmaurice70 accuracy · 42 graded+36.3
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+36.3
- Lance Zierlein58 accuracy · 27 graded+36.2
- Brandon Carney78 accuracy · 18 graded+35.8
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+35.7
- Scott Bogman68 accuracy · 33 graded+35.6
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.7
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+32.3
- Field Yates81 accuracy · 30 graded+32.2
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.3
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+30.9
- Bucky Brooks78 accuracy · 99 graded+30.4
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+30.2
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+30.0
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+28.7
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+28.5
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+26.8
- Daniel Jeremiah72 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta66 accuracy · 69 graded+22.2
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+20.9
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB22 mocksmocked around 16 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
- C.J. AllenLB7 mocksmocked around 18 · went at 53
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.0 · 233 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)66.5 · 95 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)83.7 · 34 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)77.0 · 232 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)69.8 · 72 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)55.1 · 13 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)68.9 · 212 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)71.2 · 350 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
2326–2350 of 4,115
Sonny Styles to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
Now they don't have to worry about Sonny Styles being there in the first round because he went crazy at the combine
Jacob Rodriguez to be picked “high second round even maybe even into the first round” (picks 1–64)
He's not going to the fourth round. He's not going to the third round either. He might go like Carson's he might be this year's Carson Swessinger where he's creeping up high second round even maybe even into the first round with the way he worked out.
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked “high second round pick” (picks 33–64)
Well, I I mocked him in the second round of of our draft... he's definitely someone I feel, like, has the ability to be a a a definitely a high second round pick.
Dillon Thieneman to be picked “top 20” (picks 1–20)
those are things that I feel like he may have ran him, not only into the first round, but maybe into the top 20.
Caleb Banks to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
He ran five zero five. I you know, I think he's running himself right right into the first round.
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)
I think he's a, you know, he's a top 10 pick in any draft. I don't care if it's two or five or eight.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
And so we are all assuming Fernando Mendoza goes one mic
Darrell Jackson to be picked “the second day”
That's another kid I think is gonna go on the second day that nobody's really talking about.
Romello Height to be picked “second day pick”
I haven't heard a whole lot about him, and I'm I'm anxious to hear I think he's a second day pick. I think he's a 34 outside linebacker and a designated pass rusher
Caleb Downs to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)
He's a first round safety. Gotcha. I'm in... I'm pounding that I think he's a first round pick. I just don't think in the top 10 at safety
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
the Raiders at one are gonna take Fernando Mendoza
Malachi Lawrence to be picked “top 100 pick” (picks 1–100)
So this is a guy who's gonna be top 100 pick who I think has been slept on for way too long.
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
And I think Sonny Styles not getting out of the top 10 anymore.
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
Now that's humility. Yeah, dude. You're going in the top 10 now.
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
I don't see Jeremiah Love getting out of the top five... He's not getting out of the top five.
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
You think he'll be a first rounder? That's what you think? I I would be absolutely shocked if Tysons is not a strong pick... I think it's closer to the Rams than people thought in terms of 13, not 29.
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
I don't think Jeremiah Love even gets out of the top five now.
Jadarian Price to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
And not one, but two running backs going in the first round, and they could be teammates as well. Jadarian Price, he was a really good looking running back I saw working out over the weekend with Jeremiah Love as well.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
we we've kinda talked about the Raiders within this lens of, well, they're drafting Fernando Mendoza, we think, at number one overall
Caleb Downs to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
And I don't think he's falling out of the top 10.
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10 of the first round” (picks 1–10)
four Ohio State players are gonna go in the top 10 of the first round
Francis Mauigoa to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
I think Mau and Noah, the left tackle of, of Miami goes in the top 10.
Arvell Reese to be picked “top 10 of the first round” (picks 1–10)
four Ohio State players are gonna go in the top 10 of the first round
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
I also think he's gonna go in the first round, and he's gonna be starting week one for whoever takes him.
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
I don't think Jeremiah loves getting out of the top five. How about that?
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)
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