Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,137
Graded
2,914

70% settled

Average accuracy
65.4

out of 100

Pundits
208

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1442 scored 80+730 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,914 / 4,137

graded

1,223 still pending

By season

  • 20211 of 4 graded
  • 202365 of 82 graded
  • 202498 of 113 graded
  • 20251221 of 1402 graded
  • 20261529 of 2536 graded

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

3126–3150 of 4,137

  • PendingRoss JacksonMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Elijah Sarratt to be picked “off the board before pick 42”

    both Elijah Sarat out of Indiana as well as Chris Bell out of Louisville were off the board

    Elijah Sarratt

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Jan 14, 2026the article →
  • PendingRoss JacksonMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Tim Keenan to be picked “round four”

    In round four, I went with two selections here. First of which a defensive tackle, I went with Tim Keenan the third

    Tim KeenanNew Orleans Saints

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Jan 14, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Brian & GeoffMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    I Mendos are very clear it's going to one overall idea... So how attractive is the Raiders job if you know you're getting Mendoza?

    Fernando Mendoza

    a naive guess scored 50said Jan 10, 2026
  • Miss · 0Colin CowherdMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Trinidad Chambliss to be picked “fifth round” (picks 141–181)

    I would draft him in the fifth round if he was available

    Trinidad Chambliss

    a naive guess scored 50said Jan 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 96Jason McIntyreMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10

    What do you think about Caleb Downs? The Ohio State stud have him ten to the Bengals.

    Caleb Downs

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Jan 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Jason McIntyreMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    drop mock draft one point, Oh, yesterday got my guy Mendoza up top.

    Fernando Mendoza

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Jan 9, 2026the article →
  • PendingJason McIntyreMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Matt Moore to be picked “to my Jets”

    Obviously Dante Moore to my Jets

    Matt MooreNew York Jets

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Jan 9, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Makai Lemon to be picked “a first rounder” (picks 1–32)

    I bet he'll be a first rounder.

    Makai Lemon

    a naive guess scored 50said Jan 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 81DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Mock Draft Picks2025 season

    David Bailey to be picked at number 7

    David Bailey, who on this one is at number seven

    David Bailey

    a naive guess scored 50+30 skillsaid Jan 8, 2026
  • Hit · 81Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12

    yeah, I think that's who I would pick there if I were the Dallas Cowboys

    Sonny StylesDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50said Jan 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 92DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Mock Draft Picks2025 season

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3

    Where did Fran have Reese go?... Number three overall?

    Arvell Reese

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Jan 8, 2026
  • Hit · 81DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Mock Draft Picks2025 season

    Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12

    The cowboys drafting an off ball linebacker named Sonny Styles at number 12 overall

    Sonny StylesDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50+30 skillsaid Jan 8, 2026
  • Miss · 0DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Mock Draft Picks2025 season

    Jermott McCoy to be picked at number 20

    You also have the twentieth pick... And they go Jermott McCoy, which is a cowboy special. Hurt. Tennessee corner.

    Jermott McCoyDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Jan 8, 2026
  • Hit · 84DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Mock Draft Picks2025 season

    Rueben Bain to be picked at number 11

    he's got him going number 11 to the Miami Dolphins

    Rueben BainMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Jan 8, 2026
  • Hit · 96DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Mock Draft Picks2025 season

    Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10

    Caleb Downs, who goes number 10

    Caleb Downs

    a naive guess scored 50+50 skillsaid Jan 8, 2026
  • PendingPaul PabstMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Ty Simpson to be picked “late first, early second”

    I may have to go late first, early second, but the downside is you come back like you said, and you don't get the reins.

    Ty Simpson

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Jan 8, 2026the article →
  • Close · 77Locked On Rams (podcast)Mock Draft Picks2025 season

    Sonny Styles to be picked at number 13

    the Rams, they have the number thirteenth pick in the draft ... in Yahoo Sports' latest draft, he has the Rams taking Sonny Styles, a linebacker out of Ohio State

    Sonny StylesLos Angeles Rams

    a naive guess scored 50said Jan 8, 2026
  • PendingDoug "D-Mac" McKainMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Caleb Downs to be picked “a little higher than No. 13”

    Caleb Downs is gonna go definitely a little higher than that.

    Caleb Downs

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Jan 8, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 81Mike RennerMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 11

    I'd get to 11 through 15 here. I have the Miami Dolphins going Kenyan, Saddiq, the Oregon tight end.

    Kenyon SadiqMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50+31.36 skillsaid Jan 6, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 84Mike RennerMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Makai Lemon to be picked at number 16

    16 Jets, McKay Lemann, USC wide receiver. I love this fit for forever.

    Makai LemonNew York Jets

    a naive guess scored 50+31.36 skillsaid Jan 6, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 88Mike RennerMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7

    I have the commanders going carnal tape, the Ohio State wide receiver at number seven.

    Carnell TateWashington Commanders

    a naive guess scored 50+31.36 skillsaid Jan 6, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 81Mike RennerMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12

    Sonny Styles, the line back from Ohio State going to Dallas at 12.

    Sonny StylesDallas Cowboys

    a naive guess scored 50+24.29 skillsaid Jan 6, 2026the article →
  • PendingMike RennerMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Francisco Mauigoa to be picked at number 14

    Francis Maui, Noah, Miami, offensive tackle going to the Ravens at 14.

    Francisco MauigoaBaltimore Ravens

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Jan 6, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 96Mike RennerMock Draft Picks2025 season

    David Bailey to be picked at number 3

    At number three... I have David Bailey, the Texas Tech edge going to the Cardinals.

    David BaileyArizona Cardinals

    a naive guess scored 50+24.29 skillsaid Jan 6, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 81Mike RennerMock Draft Picks2025 season

    Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 13

    Jordan Tyson, the Arizona statewide receiver going to the Rams at 13.

    Jordyn TysonLos Angeles Rams

    a naive guess scored 50+31.36 skillsaid Jan 6, 2026the article →

By sport

NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)

The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.