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Mock Draft Picks

Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.

Takes logged
4,070
Graded
2,914

72% settled

Average accuracy
65.4

out of 100

Pundits
208

have made one

How these calls land

Every graded call of this kind, bucketed by score.

Takes in each band

020406080
0 — dead wrongscore out of 100100 — nailed it
1442 scored 80+730 scored under 40

Settled or waiting

2,914 / 4,070

graded

1,156 still pending

Who is good at mock draft picks

MissedTakes score for this kind of prediction only — accuracy measured against what a naive guess would have scored. Zero means no better than guessing.

limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.

Why so many dead-wrong answers?

Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.

Accuracy collapses after round one

Average score out of 100, grouped by the round a player was mocked in. The bar is the score; the note is how far the average pick actually missed by.
  • Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
  • Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
  • Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
  • Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
  • Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg

A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.

The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.

Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.

An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.

The players who fooled everyone

Where two or more analysts were more than a round out on the same player. One person being wrong is a take; several being wrong the same way is a story.

These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.

By publisher

The same record pooled across everyone writing under one banner.

Every mock draft picks take

1226–1250 of 4,070

  • Hit · 92Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks

    Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 8

    So Miami trade up and, picked Francis Margoa.

    Francis MauigoaMiami Dolphins

    a naive guess scored 50+44.05 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026
  • Close · 46Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks

    Jeremiah Wright to be picked at number 150

    Back on the board at 01:50... Jeremiah Wright's still on the board. I think that makes us a good call

    Jeremiah WrightNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+44.05 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026
  • Close · 71Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks

    Keyron Crawford to be picked at number 75

    and then 75, we hope Kieran Crawford's still there... go ahead and roll Crawford

    Keyron CrawfordNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+44.05 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026
  • Miss · 0Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks

    Aaron Anderson to be picked at number 172

    One seventy two, one ninety, no wide receiver so far... Yeah. Let's go Anderson.

    Aaron AndersonNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+44.05 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026
  • Hit · 100Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks

    Eli Stowers to be picked “second round (pick 42 area)” (picks 33–64)

    So we went ahead and went with Stowers.

    Eli StowersNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+44.05 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026
  • Miss · 2Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks

    Tim Keenan to be picked at number 135

    the Saints are back on the board at one thirty five... Alright. Rolling with Keenan.

    Tim KeenanNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+44.05 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026
  • Hit · 84Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks

    Pat Coogan to be picked at number 190

    Pat Coogan, it is.

    Pat CooganNew Orleans Saints

    a naive guess scored 50+44.17 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026
  • Hit · 96Ayrton OstleyMock Draft Picks

    Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 27

    For the in the first round, number 27 overall, the San Francisco forty niners take offensive tackle Caleb Lomu, Utah youths.

    Caleb LomuSan Francisco 49ers

    a naive guess scored 50+28.57 skillsaid Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 11Ayrton OstleyMock Draft Picks

    Emmanuel Pregnon to be picked at number 37

    He has him marked number thirty seventh overall to the New York Giants.

    Emmanuel PregnonNew York Giants

    a naive guess scored 50+28.57 skillsaid Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Close · 46Ayrton OstleyMock Draft Picks

    R Mason Thomas to be picked at number 58

    I have the San Francisco forty niners trading out of number 58 overall because the Denver Broncos hop on the phone and go, hey. We want Edge, our Mason Thomas out of Oklahoma.

    R Mason ThomasDenver Broncos

    a naive guess scored 50+28.57 skillsaid Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 2Ayrton OstleyMock Draft Picks

    Victor Payne to be picked at number 133

    you have them at one thirty three taking VJ Payne out of Kansas State

    Victor PayneSan Francisco 49ers

    a naive guess scored 50+28.57 skillsaid Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Close · 52Ayrton OstleyMock Draft Picks

    Zion Young to be picked at number 30

    And you got Zion Young from Missouri, Dwayne's guy, going to the Los Angeles Chargers at 30.

    Zion YoungLos Angeles Chargers

    a naive guess scored 50+28.57 skillsaid Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Close · 77Ayrton OstleyMock Draft Picks

    T.J. Parker to be picked at number 29

    and then his teammate, TJ Parker, 29 to the Kansas City Chiefs

    T.J. ParkerKansas City Chiefs

    a naive guess scored 50+28.57 skillsaid Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 92Ayrton OstleyMock Draft Picks

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3

    the Arbel Reese move, which is who you have mocked to the Cardinals at three

    Arvell ReeseArizona Cardinals

    a naive guess scored 50+28.57 skillsaid Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 96Ayrton OstleyMock Draft Picks

    Peter Woods to be picked at number 28

    you have Peter Woods mocked one pick after Caleb Lomu. You got him going number 28 for the Houston Texans.

    Peter WoodsHouston Texans

    a naive guess scored 50+30 skillsaid Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 18Ayrton OstleyMock Draft Picks

    Malachi Lawrence to be picked at number 62

    40 move back to 62 overall and take edge Malachi Lawrence out of UCF.

    Malachi LawrenceSan Francisco 49ers

    a naive guess scored 50+28.57 skillsaid Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 100Ran CarthonMock Draft Picks

    Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    He, he was recently on CBS doing a mock draft, and he had the forty niners selecting Kenyan Saddiq, the tight end out of Oregon, in that first round.

    Kenyon SadiqSan Francisco 49ers

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 2Ollie ConnollyMock Draft Picks

    Kaelon Black to be picked “potential sixth round pick types” (picks 182–216)

    he'll probably be on the field more than other potential sixth round pick types

    Kaelon Black

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Close · 62Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks

    Eli Stowers to be picked “a third fourth round type of player” (picks 65–140)

    and, yeah that to me is more of a third fourth round type of. Player right, now

    Eli Stowers

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Miss · 19Ollie ConnollyMock Draft Picks

    Kyle Louis to be picked “second or third round pick” (picks 33–100)

    Kyle Lewis, who's going to be a second or third round pick as a linebacker or safety

    Kyle Louis

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Close · 48Ollie ConnollyMock Draft Picks

    Demond Claiborne to be picked “fourth or fifth round” (picks 101–181)

    Maybe he's probably gonna go in the fourth or fifth round.

    Demond Claiborne

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • PendingOllie ConnollyMock Draft Picks

    Will Kacmarek to be picked “an early day three”

    but if you think he's one of the top two blocking tight, ends that feels like an early day. Three

    Will Kacmarek

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • PendingOllie ConnollyMock Draft Picks

    Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties”

    no it feels like the range has come down slightly from Post COMBINE i would say that maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties

    Kenyon Sadiq

    Waiting on the season to settle this.said Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Close · 42Ollie ConnollyMock Draft Picks

    Ty Simpson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)

    Well, you're probably going to have to do it the top of the second round.

    Ty Simpson

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 17, 2026the article →
  • Hit · 96Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks

    Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “top fifteen of this draft” (picks 1–15)

    then he does fit as a guy who could be taken in the top fifteen of this draft and makes Sense

    Kenyon Sadiq

    a naive guess scored 50said Apr 17, 2026the article →

By sport

NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)

The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.