Mock Draft Picks
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 4,070
- Graded
- 2,914
- Average accuracy
- 65.4
- Pundits
- 208
72% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
2,914 / 4,070
graded
1,156 still pending
Who is good at mock draft picks
- Chris Brockman75 accuracy · 36 graded+50.0
- Ryan Tracy48 accuracy · 21 graded+50.0
- John Middlekauff76 accuracy · 19 graded+50.0
- Chris Clark68 accuracy · 16 graded+50.0
- Tom Pelissero90 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Joel Klatt92 accuracy · 13 graded+50.0
- Dylan Sanders68 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Jeff Cavanaugh82 accuracy · 10 graded+50.0
- Dane Brugler87 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Kyle Brandt69 accuracy · 8 graded+50.0
- Brian Bosarge18 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Jason McIntyre64 accuracy · 6 graded+50.0
- Darrion Gray64 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Cody Kessler65 accuracy · 5 graded+50.0
- Justin Pugh93 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Bernie Frattle65 accuracy · 4 graded+50.0
- Natalie Kerwin84 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Lance Moore86 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Bradley Locker60 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz50 accuracy · 3 graded+50.0
- Cynthia Frelund48 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- John Butchko85 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Logan Ryan50 accuracy · 2 graded+50.0
- Brendan Donahue77 accuracy · 16 graded+48.6
- Brady Quinn80 accuracy · 15 graded+47.6
- Chad Reuter58 accuracy · 4 graded+47.5
- Jason Hirschhorn53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Jacob Westendorf53 accuracy · 5 graded+47.0
- Rich Eisen84 accuracy · 58 graded+46.7
- Jordan Reid87 accuracy · 14 graded+46.5
- Charles Davis84 accuracy · 13 graded+46.4
- Andy Furman97 accuracy · 7 graded+45.0
- Andrew Erickson71 accuracy · 12 graded+43.5
- Chad Rader72 accuracy · 10 graded+43.3
- David Harrison64 accuracy · 120 graded+43.2
- Ryan McCrystal61 accuracy · 36 graded+40.4
- Matt Miller81 accuracy · 44 graded+40.4
- Emory Hunt47 accuracy · 9 graded+40.1
- Kimmi Chex69 accuracy · 4 graded+40.0
- Danny Parkins95 accuracy · 25 graded+39.7
- Mike Renner74 accuracy · 98 graded+39.5
- Ross Jackson63 accuracy · 142 graded+38.4
- Peter Schrager74 accuracy · 18 graded+37.5
- Keith Sanchez68 accuracy · 43 graded+37.4
- Nate Tice72 accuracy · 20 graded+37.2
- Jaime Eisner44 accuracy · 119 graded+36.7
- Pat Fitzmaurice70 accuracy · 42 graded+36.3
- Vinnie Iyer73 accuracy · 8 graded+36.3
- Lance Zierlein58 accuracy · 27 graded+36.2
- Brandon Carney78 accuracy · 18 graded+35.8
- Colin Cowherd67 accuracy · 60 graded+35.7
- Scott Bogman68 accuracy · 33 graded+35.6
- Nick Wright82 accuracy · 95 graded+34.8
- Brian Peacock68 accuracy · 36 graded+34.7
- Trevor Sikkema75 accuracy · 17 graded+33.3
- Daniel Wade60 accuracy · 13 graded+32.9
- Nick Shook91 accuracy · 37 graded+32.3
- Pat Gustavson82 accuracy · 16 graded+32.3
- Field Yates81 accuracy · 30 graded+32.2
- Todd McShay90 accuracy · 24 graded+31.3
- Gregg Rosenthal79 accuracy · 108 graded+30.9
- Bucky Brooks78 accuracy · 99 graded+30.4
- Mel Kiper81 accuracy · 65 graded+30.2
- Eric Crocker64 accuracy · 16 graded+30.0
- Ayrton Ostley59 accuracy · 14 graded+28.7
- Kyle Crabbs68 accuracy · 322 graded+28.5
- Derek Brown78 accuracy · 21 graded+26.8
- Daniel Jeremiah72 accuracy · 226 graded+26.7
- Jourdan Rodrigue70 accuracy · 31 graded+24.5
- JP Acosta66 accuracy · 69 graded+22.2
- Steve Mensch74 accuracy · 14 graded+20.9
- Eric Edholm47 accuracy · 4 graded+20.0
- Peter Bukowski50 accuracy · 26 graded+12.5
- Jonas Knox17 accuracy · 10 graded-5.0
- Mike Mayock51 accuracy · 22 graded-5.2
- Isaiah Stanback66 accuracy · 4 graded-10.0
- Fran Duffy51 accuracy · 8 graded-50.0
limitedRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
Why so many dead-wrong answers?
Mock drafts are the single biggest source of zero scores on this site — and it is not because analysts are bad at them. It is because a mock draft asks the same person to do two very different jobs, and only one of them is possible.
Accuracy collapses after round one
- Round 1 · picks 1–321653 picks · off by 10 on average76.4 avg
- Round 2 · 33–64112 picks · off by 25 on average49.5 avg
- Round 3 · 65–10093 picks · off by 34 on average38.8 avg
- Day 3 · 101–175158 picks · off by 41 on average32.7 avg
- Late Day 3 · 176+93 picks · off by 50 on average26.9 avg
A first-round mock is a genuinely good prediction. Across 1653 first-round picks the average score is 76.4, missing by about 10 places. By late day 3 that has fallen to 26.9, missing by 50.
The order of the late rounds is close to unknowable. Thirty-two teams making a hundred and fifty picks are working from private boards, trades nobody has made yet, and medical information that never becomes public. 38% of every zero-scored pick we hold was mocked after round two.
Which is a hard thing to score fairly, and looking at this chart is what made us change how we do it. Until 2 August 2026 credit ran out at one full round, so a pick 32 places out and one 128 places out both scored zero — and 29% of every pick we held sat on that floor. Credit now halves every sixteen picks instead: the standard for a good pick is untouched, and being wrong by a round is no longer the same answer as being wrong by four. The methodology records the change and the numbers behind it.
An analyst who mocks all seven rounds is still attempting the hardest version of the exercise, and the back half will always score lower than the front. That is why the leaderboard ranks on MissedTakes Score, which comes from how well a mock ordered the draft rather than from its individual picks — a seven-round mock is judged on the shape it got right, not on the length of its tail.
The players who fooled everyone
- Jermod McCoyCB22 mocksmocked around 16 · went at 101
- Shedeur SandersQB18 mocksmocked around 8 · went at 144
- Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF11 mocksmocked around 21 · went at 58
- Will JohnsonCB7 mocksmocked around 10 · went at 47
- C.J. AllenLB7 mocksmocked around 18 · went at 53
These are predictions about where a team would pick, not judgements of the player. A slide says as much about thirty-two front offices as it does about anyone’s evaluation.
By publisher
- Locked On Bills (podcast)55.8 · 36 graded
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)67.8 · 53 graded
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)94.9 · 42 graded
- Locked On Lions (podcast)81.1 · 26 graded
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)91.8 · 14 graded
- Sharp Football Analysis68.9 · 52 graded
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)60.4 · 126 graded
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)97.3 · 12 graded
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)74.7 · 232 graded
- Locked On Chargers (podcast)70.4 · 26 graded
- Locked On Saints (podcast)63.5 · 182 graded
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)79.0 · 233 graded
- KC Sports Network (podcast)66.5 · 95 graded
- The Draft Network42.6 · 162 graded
- First Things First (podcast)79.7 · 119 graded
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)83.7 · 34 graded
- Around the NFL (podcast)77.0 · 232 graded
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)69.8 · 72 graded
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)55.1 · 13 graded
- Locked On Rams (podcast)50.0 · 14 graded
- Pushing the Pile (podcast)68.9 · 212 graded
- Move the Sticks (podcast)71.2 · 350 graded
- The 33rd Team63.7 · 349 graded
- NFL Live (podcast)92.7 · 22 graded
- Locked On Packers (podcast)52.4 · 39 graded
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)71.6 · 72 graded
- 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)68.6 · 26 graded
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)62.5 · 38 graded
- The Colin Cowherd Podcast (podcast)77.8 · 13 graded
- Locked On Cardinals (podcast)88.4 · 6 graded
- Walter Football99.6 · 6 graded
- Nightcap (podcast)66.7 · 3 graded
- 4for4100.0 · 1 graded
- Pro Football Focus100.0 · 1 graded
- Fox Sports0.0 · 1 graded
Every mock draft picks take
1226–1250 of 4,070
- Hit · 92Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 8
So Miami trade up and, picked Francis Margoa.
a naive guess scored 50+44.05 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026 - Close · 46Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks
Jeremiah Wright to be picked at number 150
Back on the board at 01:50... Jeremiah Wright's still on the board. I think that makes us a good call
Jeremiah WrightNew Orleans Saints
a naive guess scored 50+44.05 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026 - Close · 71Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks
Keyron Crawford to be picked at number 75
and then 75, we hope Kieran Crawford's still there... go ahead and roll Crawford
Keyron CrawfordNew Orleans Saints
a naive guess scored 50+44.05 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026 - Miss · 0Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks
Aaron Anderson to be picked at number 172
One seventy two, one ninety, no wide receiver so far... Yeah. Let's go Anderson.
Aaron AndersonNew Orleans Saints
a naive guess scored 50+44.05 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026 - Hit · 100Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks
Eli Stowers to be picked “second round (pick 42 area)” (picks 33–64)
So we went ahead and went with Stowers.
a naive guess scored 50+44.05 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026 - Miss · 2Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks
Tim Keenan to be picked at number 135
the Saints are back on the board at one thirty five... Alright. Rolling with Keenan.
a naive guess scored 50+44.05 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026 - Hit · 84Locked On Saints (podcast)Mock Draft Picks
Pat Coogan to be picked at number 190
Pat Coogan, it is.
a naive guess scored 50+44.17 skillsaid Apr 18, 2026 Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 27
For the in the first round, number 27 overall, the San Francisco forty niners take offensive tackle Caleb Lomu, Utah youths.
Emmanuel Pregnon to be picked at number 37
He has him marked number thirty seventh overall to the New York Giants.
R Mason Thomas to be picked at number 58
I have the San Francisco forty niners trading out of number 58 overall because the Denver Broncos hop on the phone and go, hey. We want Edge, our Mason Thomas out of Oklahoma.
Victor Payne to be picked at number 133
you have them at one thirty three taking VJ Payne out of Kansas State
Zion Young to be picked at number 30
And you got Zion Young from Missouri, Dwayne's guy, going to the Los Angeles Chargers at 30.
T.J. Parker to be picked at number 29
and then his teammate, TJ Parker, 29 to the Kansas City Chiefs
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
the Arbel Reese move, which is who you have mocked to the Cardinals at three
Peter Woods to be picked at number 28
you have Peter Woods mocked one pick after Caleb Lomu. You got him going number 28 for the Houston Texans.
Malachi Lawrence to be picked at number 62
40 move back to 62 overall and take edge Malachi Lawrence out of UCF.
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
He, he was recently on CBS doing a mock draft, and he had the forty niners selecting Kenyan Saddiq, the tight end out of Oregon, in that first round.
Kaelon Black to be picked “potential sixth round pick types” (picks 182–216)
he'll probably be on the field more than other potential sixth round pick types
Eli Stowers to be picked “a third fourth round type of player” (picks 65–140)
and, yeah that to me is more of a third fourth round type of. Player right, now
Kyle Louis to be picked “second or third round pick” (picks 33–100)
Kyle Lewis, who's going to be a second or third round pick as a linebacker or safety
Demond Claiborne to be picked “fourth or fifth round” (picks 101–181)
Maybe he's probably gonna go in the fourth or fifth round.
Will Kacmarek to be picked “an early day three”
but if you think he's one of the top two blocking tight, ends that feels like an early day. Three
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties”
no it feels like the range has come down slightly from Post COMBINE i would say that maybe it's mole down in the teens the twenties
Ty Simpson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)
Well, you're probably going to have to do it the top of the second round.
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “top fifteen of this draft” (picks 1–15)
then he does fit as a guy who could be taken in the top fifteen of this draft and makes Sense
By sport
NFL — mock draft picks (2995 graded)
The NFL is the only sport we cover today. This page exists so that adding a second one does not mean rewriting every link.